Psycho Betting and Stats 301-Degenalytics Question
!!!!DISCLAIMER:!!!! Before you even start watching this for entertainment and see if you get offended by this un-P.C. content. Don't be a pussy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igsb3ejgbL8 If you can't handle it, leave this thread. If you can, then you may proceed to the next level. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 📰📜Story📜📰: I've been scatter-brained, ire-filled, soul-searching and lost after a 7-day Degen Marathon that brought a shit load of misfortunes. I used to hate social media, but I've learned how to wield the soc. med. sword like a fucking Degen Jedi. I'm going to promote an honest cause where I seek to be victorious in the end. Just you watch you fucking doubters, haters, blockers, scammers. How much grit and intellect would the average fucking person have to endure what I've gone through in the last fucking 48 hours and still come out alive with a sense of greater purpose? Had about $400 to $500 in righteously earned bonus dollars earned through impossible grinding degen mission that came pretty close to accomplishing (91%). I would have had some imaginary >$600 BR by now, but instead the roll-over deadline caused the entire deposit to be forfeited and I manage to salvage some $100. Due to a bonus rollover scheme, 80U of my balance was stuck in bonuses and if I fail to accomplish the roll-over by the deadline, it all gets forfeited. With a $500-$600 balance, I could have somewhere at $900-1000 by now after a 20-2 W-L record on European football on Wednesday. How did I get that record yesterday, by sampling a bunch of solid pre-game picks and live betting using my own fucking brain. I consult with the finest in capping. With $10-$20 bet sizes, That would have put me up maybe $15x16 = +$240 at minimum. $1000 was the imaginary bank roll. As of today, betting with $1 units, after Monday-Wednesday's successful run, while Tuesday was a -$50 blip, I converted $100 to about close to $200 (40U). 🤪🤑Psycho Betting🤑🤪: I learned the art of psycho betting. Taking some well-advised 10U and 30U psycho bets that put my bankroll up a significant amounts, but a big loss does the opposite. Yesterday I manage to hit 4 grand 30U slams in a row, however many on juiced lines, so each $30 bet one returns about $15-20. Thus my bankroll grew nearly +100 units and sits close to $200 from the initial $100 I manage to salvage after that bonus robbery. If you want to fucking learn the art of Psycho-Betting to the extremest and be successful at it, fucking put in $100 in Bovada (remember to use money that you can afford to lose) and get that fucking bonus for the purpose of looting the bookies in a successful vengeance scheme. This guy is a fucking Artillery: https://twitter.com/GoTimeCappers. Fucking hit more than 4x30U grand slams yesterday and some 10-20U cherries on top. I tailed his free picks and other through consultation [Haha fucking reddit/sportsbook will probably ban me for promoting another tout, :)].Of course with my $1.5U size on a crippled bank roll, I cannot grow it to as much as I wanted to using GoTime's techniques. I would have been at another +$400 if I had $6 units. It's a high risk and high reward system, but if you are confident with your picks you go big on it. If you lose it, then you grind back with smaller 10U and 20U bets to try to get back to part to be able to do another 30U bet. The goal is to be like 2-1, 3-0 on 30U grand slams a day. There is some level of sustainability and back up plans to execute in case the 30U bet did not work out. It is very improbable for you to lose 10 in a row on well researched picks that the experts in the community have common agreement on. A lot of the times, the lines shift to reward you less for the pick since big money is already on the pick. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !!!!!DISCLAIMER: DO NOT READ BEYOND HERE IF YOU HATE MATH OR HAVE AN IQ OF < 89!!!!! Use the chart on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_classification Here is a Nice Calculation to do: 📚📑💻Stats 301 Question in Degenalytics💻📑📚**:** Lastly I asked anyone in the past few days to do a Stats 301 question with Degenalytics Context: To fucking determine the probability that an avg Joe with a $100+100 Bonus Bank-roll or $500 + 250B bank roll can actually pull off the $3000/$7500 grind in some number of N months betting with supposedly 2 full months of real sports (N-2) getting Obliterated by COVID-19. I want you to give me an analytical calculation or a simulation of your work and give me all the possible scenarios. Then give the final verdict of if that number converges to 0.000% or 100.00% that the average Joe would succeed his false-hope mission for a successful rollover. In other words think of it like this: If the average joe bets his entire bank roll 12 or more times (roll-over is not x10 because of bookie juice), what is the probability that he will still end up in the green? Also assign a tilt probability factor that the Average Joe would go on some emotional tilt spree to end up bust again? And make it even harder by eliminating 2-3 full months of real sports (N-2.5) and having to bet on Bovada's limited shitty ass lines and shitty live odds. If you fucking want to eliminate the -2.5 months, then allow the average joe the freedom to bet on N months of e-sports [hahah] and see where that goes. I had a bad experience betting on e-sports for 2 months and only end up -15-20U. I'm not saying that I lost because I suck at e-sports betting or I tailed the wrong people. The Bovada lines are super shitty and limited. Most of the time, on live esports, all you see are dashed out lines as if they fucking know what the rigged result is and prevent people from doing hedge bets or try to bet opposite spreads when they are winning to guarantee an insurance 1-1 with minimal damage incurred to their bank-roll. The live betting experience on e-sports on the Bovada platform is so bad that you are guaranteed to lose in the long run. Fucking hell Bodog/Bovada even offered me a $250 deposit on 100% bonus after the Rudy Gobert day in Mid March. They advertised the joys and wonders of getting rich betting off esports. I was so tempted to deposit, however I kind of over-slept and missed out on the dead-line so they closed the bonus offer. Pretty good relief that I did not fuck-up my real credit card and bank account by falling for that scam again. It was an accidental Grace of God moment to fucking avoid that E-sports deposit marketing scam. BONUS Questions: A: Calculate the number of months needed and number of successful bets required for the conservative degen 1u bettor to grind out the roll-over playing $2.00 tug of war with the bookie. B: Calculate the odds that a professional capper who knows how to adjust unit sizes (1u-5u), do parlays once a while, will succeed the roll-over in some N-2.5 months or add some e-sports to have fun to keep the N factor. C.1: Calculate the conditional probabilities for the bettor succeeding in the mission if on the first few days of betting: i) He loses bet 1 for about $20. ii) Wins bet 1 for about $20 to earn $17.5. iii) Goes on a 3 game losing streak iv) 5 game losing streak v) Positivity case: The guy got lucky and nearly doubled his bank roll on a decent run from day. Up +100U or $200. [I'm sure that out of bad discipline the average Joe would still go -200U in the long run with a pretty high probability.] C.2: Determine the mathematical scheme on how the Bookies can use your first few losses to eventually put you in a 60+:40- (Greater than 60% locked in bonus, less than 40% of your deposited money). Bonus:Locked funds ratio. The Jinx-King answer: It converges to zero [hahaha], but I really am interested in know what other scenarios math and stats people have come up. And your mathematical approaches and formulae used to generate possible scenarios and probabilities. But I think it is safe to say that for the average Joe,the answer is 0.00% success rate. Bodog/Bovada knows this exactly and refuses to put a hiatus on the roll-over deadline. Instead they keep it going so that people can try to wager on e-sports and lose their entire bank roll. They are only interested it getting 100% of your locked funds so that they can buy expensive cruises, yachts, beach mansions, resort packages, etc in Aruba or some other tropical place. Where you got millions of desperate Americans, Canadians in struggling economies with lost jobs and zero positive cash-flow. About 10% or so or perhaps even more deposit money into off-shore gambling websites hoping they can roll-over their bank-roll some ridiculous number of times and make a few bucks to put food on the table. In fact, it makes matters worst being jobless, having zero cash flow and having locked funds in scamming bookies. If you are not good at casino or sports-betting games, you would have: A: Lose your entire deposit for failing to grind it out properly. B: Not grind it out on time on whatever dead-line the roll-over was. C: Even if you did successfully grind that shit out using conservative 1u betting and play $2 tug of war with the bookie, you will end up just wasting your time grinding it out for hours and hours on end. It would have been better for you to fucking find a job at some farm helping out with harvesting crops or work in meat plants so that food does not go to waste. I bet you I can make more money than your $2 tug of war in one a day picking off cans and bottles off the streets in some exercise walking/running/biking + collection routine then selling it to the recycling center for $0.05-0.25 a unit. Trust me at my university, I spot maybe about 50-200 empty/partially driven cans and bottles left on desks, lecture halls, the floor, libraries, work areas, etc. Supposed that I harvested that shit, I would be making $5-$20 a day collecting it all and going to the recycling center once every week. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ⚖Conclusions⚖: The fucking company knows this COVID-19 closure shit and want to use it to their advantage to continue to rob millions of their customers. Last week, I tried to call customer service, chat help, email, etc. and management has spoken to plead my case to delay the roll-over dead-line in a pro-rated time frame so that customers with locked balances can resume betting with their full balance when Game 1 of any Major League Sport actually returns. They give me the same bull-shit over and over saying they decline my request. For what reason?
The terms and conditions written in fine print for accepting the bonus conversion challenge. "Rules are Rules."
They were aware my deadline of June 22 at 19:23 ET was approaching soon. They knew I was on a mission to salvage my bank roll before they yank out the 60-75U trapped in bonus balances (i.e. Ghost money). By the end of it, I realize I made a foolish mistake. Most of my wins were just from bonus money and I was rewarded $0.00 on righteous wins on expired bonuses.
Therefore Bonus money only earns bonus money which put my entire bank-roll in a 80:20 ratio where the bookies control 80U in ghost money. By the end of the roll-over deadline, they get to yank out 80U of my balance at the deadline and left me with about $100 (20U) bank roll to regrind.
They knew I was winning consistently making solid picks.
During my 110 hour marathon over the brutal grind of losing more than 70 hours of work, leisure and recreation; 35 hours of sleep; to a fucking impossible grind of trying to roll over some 60% of $7500 on sports I have little knowledge of capping (i.e. E-sports, Table Tennis, European football) after a few days of studying the game, I was picking up my stride to grind it to 91%. They fucking knew that if I had another day to grind, they would be coughing up +$600-800 of withdrawable balance to my account. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bio:😎📚🎓👨🎓 I am a Fucking PHD Candidate (2-6 months from graduating and not having to pay another round of BS tuition) who does a shitload of mathematics, statistics, simulations, mathematical physics, wrote scientific papers. I've won T.A. Awards, Government/Provincial/Institutional level scholarships, Conference presentations, with even Undergrad honors back in the day. DM me if you need a fucking CV to prove my fucking credentials. Why am I able to write a lot of shit? Because my fucking brain operates on some max level Intel Xeon chip on overclock mode and I cannot do much to shut it down other than going to sleep. They only way is to write articles that I think might benefit the community. I have a crazy interest in sports and Degen'ing. I love to fucking put action on sports games, be proud about making the correct calls on the outcome of games before it happens, and then boast to my circle of competitive friends about who's the fucking Boss. As tabboo as society think us degens are, I think this absolute BS. There is a pure enjoyment in watching sports and having action on it. It is nice to get paid beer money to cover a round for your buddies, or earn that rent money over a successful night of betting on shit you actually enjoy watching. Fuck I rather make $300 for one evening of enjoying sports rather than working a 9-5 dull job to try to afford rent/mortgage. If I can fucking pay off all my monthly expenses in 3 fucking successful nights of 3 hr sessions of sports matches, that would be ideal. I would take the lather over a 9-5 rat-race grind. Overall I am "PRO" in the debate for local single sports betting bookies to be established in Canada. Get these fucking scamming off-shore books like bodog/Bovada who contribute only contribute "Bagel" to the Canadian Economy, but instead make it worst by scamming the masses of hard working or desperate people to leak out some sum of billions of dollars of national GDP. Probably the same applies to all American States, that people should not have to cough up their hard earned $$$$ to off-shore scamming bookies. I shall write an article about this later to justify my arguments later. Ultimately I my goal is to obliterate or negate the influence of all the cons, scamming bookies, and false touts out there who are just interested in stealing people's $$$. To write out full studies on exposing their schemes in an objective lens. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calling me out:(Think I cannot track these pussy downvotes? I know you cowards 😂😜😎) If you think I'm full of BS, then send me a personal DM to have a 1v1 argument the same way that Stephen A debates sports with Max Kellerman. You can downvote me or flame me with empty hate talk all you want on public threads. But don't be a fucky pussy by avoiding a debate with me. Trust me, I'm going to win and be the last one to state a real point that you will have no comeback for [haha]. Lastly, if you are open to discuss or debate with me about some issues, do some resarch/exploration, betting strategies, etc., I would love your collaboration in some projects I got going on. Ultimately, I should help every honest worker strive towards Degen success or if not, just to purely enjoy putting action on sports games. If you are too full of yourself, then you are on your own, I bid thee adieu, and wish you all the best. However you will be absolutely declined to all services and counsel I work to provide to friends for free. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Social Media📺🎬 Some extra Resource to how I got to this point in my mission. Here it is for starters: June 23, 2020: The Impossible Pursuit Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Tuesday) June 24, 2020: Doubling Bank roll and rewarded Bagel: Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Wednesday) June 24, 2020: How can you win 5 in a row and lose it all simultaneously? Reddit/sportsbook/What is your most impressive win? Full Twiiter: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5 All my media: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/media Discord: ????? To be solved. Challenges: Got a few right in progress now and a couple of drafts I am working on. The Jinxking Crusade (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275516258822131714?s=20 Turns out many people cannot withdraw anything out of Bovada/bodog due to some website glitches. Will try to recover a bankroll to attempt a withdrawal, however I am likely to have the same issues too. They will make some lame excuse to not give me a cheque. Definitely no point of pursuing anything in bovada/bodog if they refuse to give you withdrawables. The goal is to get their website off outta here. As well as get them out of advertisements. They definitely pulled off some "Get the fucking money and run scheme" and you will likely not see your money again. GG The Jinxking Challenge (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275661929940467713?s=20 Want to expose a bad tout who over prices the service and has a mediocre record? Tail and fade to call their their BS or mediocre non profiting record out. Also good for finding legitimate winners too. This will be a mission to expose shitty touts on Twitter the way Penn & Teller exposes BS in the market.
With Cheltenham Festival coming up, I thought I’d put together a comprehensive guide and overview for what is THE most profitable time for matched bettors. So whether you have been doing matched betting for a while or you’re completely new to the concept, with a bit of luck this post should be interesting/useful. Just a quick disclaimer. Throughout this guide I will be referencing Heads&Heads, however, this is not a promotional piece. The advice below can be used and applied to whichever service you happen to be with. There will be an offer at the bottom of this guide. Ignore it if you are not interested, I won’t be offended – the important thing is we all smash Cheltenham while it is still so profitable. Firstly, why exactly is this such a profitable time for Matched Bettors? Well, simply put, the Cheltenham Festival is one of the world’s biggest horse racing events. As such, all the bookmakers will be falling over themselves to ensure punters place their bets with them rather than their competitors. Why Cheltenham is a Big Deal Cheltenham Festival is one of the busiest times of the year for bookmakers with projections of around £500 million to be placed in bets over the 4 days of racing. There are a total of 28 races to bet on giving an average of around £17,850,000 bet on each race. Punters at the Festival and around the country betting online jump on early ante-post markets and last minute bets. The rise of mobile betting in recently years has given bookmakers a new way to connect with customers and now it’s easier than ever to place a bet wherever you are. With so much money involved in betting on races at Cheltenham, bookies fight for customers in the run-up and during the festival. One way bookies entice customers to bet with them over a competitor is to run special promotions for the races. These can be in the form of free bet offers, money back specials, extra places, best odds guaranteed and more. Punters looking for the best value in their bets should take advantage of these enhanced offers while they are around as they can result in increased returns and minimised losses. All of this plays into the hands of matched bettors like us, who can take advantage of the value without incurring risk. If you are holding back on completing welcome offers before Cheltenham, then you should know that several bookmakers run enhanced offers throughout Cheltenham. Some of the more popular ones being Betfair, SkyBet, Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred. 6 Steps For Tackling Cheltenham With all the offers and potential profit flying around it can become a little overwhelming. The best place to start is by simply practicing the basics - and that is our first of six steps for getting ready to tackle Cheltenham. Note: I will update this post with the key offers closer to the time. 1. Practice Makes Perfect When it comes to matched betting you can never get enough practice! You may think you understand every reload strategy there is. However, when the offers come as quickly as they do during Cheltenham, practice can be the difference between getting into breaking the £1,000 profit mark and missing out. So, make sure that you have familiarised yourself with and practiced the popular horse racing offers before Cheltenham. These include 2nd to SP Fav, 2nd place refund, 4/1 winner, fallers insurance. Simply doing a Saturday’s worth of horse racing reload offers will tick a lot of these boxes. If you would like to understand the concept a little more, we recommend going to the Training Section of Heads&Heads and looking at the guides under the sub-heading, ‘Offer Strategies’. 2. Be Organised This can be best summed up as - make sure that your money is where it needs to be before the end of the weekend prior to Cheltenham (7th & 8th March). Additionally, try to have completed the majority of the welcome offers for the major bookmakers. The key bookmaker to have ready is Bet365 – their Horse racing offer during the festival is massively profitable. Set up a separate PayPal for faster withdrawals. If you've not got a massive exchange balance, then on this rare occasion we recommend boosting its size using your own funds. Of course, because you’re matched betting the only risk is the tiny qualifying loss per offer, which you should be used to by now. The last thing you want is to be missing out on offers and not making the most of the available profit. Try to get some bets on the night before if the odds matches are strong. Know which offers are available on which races and know what offers you want to go for on each race. 3. Go Easy Early Do easy low stake reloads (Free bet on a loss, 2nd place, 2nd to SP favourite, etc) the night before if possible or early morning. The Exchanges will have a lot of liquidity, even hours before the races – meaning that you will not need to worry about unmatched bets when laying. 4. Odds Boosts & VIP Look out for the boosts and make a note to check the Heads&Heads forums facebook group hourly for any updates on potential boosts. These will come thick and fast, but if you are quick, you can create some pretty incredible profit margins. Additionally, make sure you check your email over the 4 days. There will be plenty of bookmakers handing out ‘tailored’ offers to their VIP members. VIP has a loose definition in the eyes of the bookmaker, so you’re likely to get a lot more of these than you think and they are often very lucrative. If you want Heads&Heads to check a VIP offer before you attempt it, just post on the forum or message us on Live Chat. 5. Enjoy It Sounds cliché but don’t let it stress you out. Making money is great but taking the week off work and then running yourself into the ground all week isn't worth it. Matched betting is a side earner – something to enjoy and be done in your spare time to earn you some extra cash. It should not feel like a job. 6. A Small Exchange Balance Is No Excuse! Is it worth taking part with a really small bank like £500'ish? Even if you just did the offers that guaranteed a profit, you’d still make around £250 and this would not require a massive exchange balance. So yes, it is absolutely still worth it. What If I Am Gubbed by Most Bookmakers? This is a very common question and not an unreasonable one either. After all it is incredibly frustrating to have your account with a bookie gubbed. This is even worse when a huge event like Cheltenham is coming up. Honestly, it will restrict your ability to make money, but it is still possible to make a profit from Cheltenham. Extra place strategies are worth looking at. This is made possible because Extra place betting doesn’t rely on you using free offers. So, if the bookie has only restricted your use of free offers then this is your best option. Furthermore, if you are restricted from getting reload offers by a bookmaker, you should still be able to take advantage of odds boosts. So, keep an eye out for these on the Heads&Heads Forum. Anything I Should Be Looking Out For? One issue to be aware of is that of the smaller bookmakers offering very generous odds. If an offer looks too good to be true then you should be careful. This was particularly true a couple of years ago, when a lot of smaller bookies offered really good odds and then refused to pay out people’s winnings. This problem is unlikely to occur again (happened in 2017), with bookmakers under the spotlight by legislators like never before. In addition, if you have an account with the bookmaker prior to Cheltenham starting, then you’ll be slightly more trusted by the bookie and thus they will honour your pay-out. Should You Book Time Off Work? Are you planning to take time off work during Cheltenham? This could be a great idea. As well as watching the races on TV, you can stay up to date with all of the offers during the day. However, we want to stress that taking time off work is by no means 'required' to make money during this week. That said, speed will be key for so many of the opportunities during the festival. You may only have a small amount of time to place your bet or lose the opportunity. Being at home will, of course, make this a lot easier. However, not everyone can take all 4 days off. So which days should you prioritise? Simple answer really. The first day – Tuesday (10th March). The reason for this is that the first day sees more offers available than any other single day. The bookies tend to start off strong and tail off towards the end. Cheltenham Schedule Day 1 (Tuesday 10th March 2020) 13:30 -The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 14:10 - The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase 14:50 -The Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase 15:30 - The Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 16:10 - The Mares’ Hurdle 16:50 - The Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase 17:30 - The National Hunt Challenge Cup Day 2 (Wednesday 11th March 2020) 13:30 - The Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle 14:10 - The RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase 14:50 - The Coral Cup 15:30 - The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase 16:10 - The Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 16:50 - The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 17:30 - The Weatherbys Champion Bumper Day 3 (Thursday 12th March 2020) 13:30 - The Marsh Novices’ Chase 14:10 - The Pertemps Network Final 14:50 - The Ryanair Chase 15:30 - The Stayers’ Hurdle 16:10 - The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate 16:50 - Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle 17:30 - The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Day 4 (Friday 13th March 2020) 13:30 - The JCB Triumph Hurdle 14:10 - The Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle 14:50 - The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 15:30 - The Cheltenham Gold Cup 16:10 - The St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup 16:50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase 17:30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Our Predictions Now, predictions may seem a bit useless as we are matched betting. However, knowing who the experts favour to win can help you pick a horse. So, for example, if an offer was triggered if your horse lost, you'd want to be sure you were avoiding those favoured to do well. So, use the below to help inform some of your decisions when completing Cheltenham reload offers. Epatante Epatante has caught the eye of punters during the early betting for the Champion Hurdle and, at the time of writing, rates as one of the strongest race favourites of the week. We likely have not seen the best of this horse. Benie Des Dieux Benie Des Dieux is quoted for a few Cheltenham races this spring but traders at major bookmakers are confident she will run in the Mares Hurdle. If she does, bookies expect her to win the race with a bit to spare. Envoi Allen Envoi Allen is priced as the standout horse in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle and traders believe he will take all the beating. A loss here will rate as one of the biggest upsets of the week. He won each of his first seven starts. Defi Du Seuil Defi Du Seuil can be found quoted in the Champion Chase antepost betting and the early money has been promising. He has won 13 of his first 18 and those stats aren’t to be taken lightly, certainly not by backers. Tiger Roll Tiger Roll is a fans favourite but have we already seen the best of Tiger Roll? As it stands Tiger Roll is the antepost favourite to win the Cross Country Chase and is a short price at that. Every Cheltenham offer will be posted on the Reload section. It is also worth keeping up to date with the Cheltenham Forum thread – here the best offers of the day will be discussed. If you are interested in giving matched betting a go or Heads&Heads a go I’ve posted a discount code below. As I mentioned at the start of the guide, you can either use it or not. The main thing for me will be people find one or two useful bits of info in this guide. Discount: £2 for 60 days of Premium membership to Heads&Heads. Discount code: BUILDUP Click the link to have the code automatically applied: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=BUILDUP Timetable template for Cheltenham: https://headsandheads.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/Cheltenham+Timetable+-+template.xlsx The most important thing is to get involved! Best of luck and happy profit hunting!
With Cheltenham Festival coming up, I thought I’d put together a comprehensive guide and overview for what is THE most profitable time for matched bettors. So whether you have been doing matched betting for a while or you’re completely new to the concept, with a bit of luck this post should be interesting/useful. Just a quick disclaimer. Throughout this guide I will be referencing Heads&Heads, however, this is not a promotional piece. The advice below can be used and applied to whichever service you happen to be with. There will be an offer at the bottom of this guide. Ignore it if you are not interested, I won’t be offended – the important thing is we all smash Cheltenham while it is still so profitable. Firstly, why exactly is this such a profitable time for Matched Bettors? Well, simply put, the Cheltenham Festival is one of the world’s biggest horse racing events. As such, all the bookmakers will be falling over themselves to ensure punters place their bets with them rather than their competitors. Why Cheltenham is a Big Deal Cheltenham Festival is one of the busiest times of the year for bookmakers with projections of around £500 million to be placed in bets over the 4 days of racing. There are a total of 28 races to bet on giving an average of around £17,850,000 bet on each race. Punters at the Festival and around the country betting online jump on early ante-post markets and last minute bets. The rise of mobile betting in recently years has given bookmakers a new way to connect with customers and now it’s easier than ever to place a bet wherever you are. With so much money involved in betting on races at Cheltenham, bookies fight for customers in the run-up and during the festival. One way bookies entice customers to bet with them over a competitor is to run special promotions for the races. These can be in the form of free bet offers, money back specials, extra places, best odds guaranteed and more. Punters looking for the best value in their bets should take advantage of these enhanced offers while they are around as they can result in increased returns and minimised losses. All of this plays into the hands of matched bettors like us, who can take advantage of the value without incurring risk. If you are holding back on completing welcome offers before Cheltenham, then you should know that several bookmakers run enhanced offers throughout Cheltenham. Some of the more popular ones being Betfair, SkyBet, Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred. 6 Steps For Tackling Cheltenham With all the offers and potential profit flying around it can become a little overwhelming. The best place to start is by simply practicing the basics - and that is our first of six steps for getting ready to tackle Cheltenham. Note: I will update this post with the key offers closer to the time. 1. Practice Makes Perfect When it comes to matched betting you can never get enough practice! You may think you understand every reload strategy there is. However, when the offers come as quickly as they do during Cheltenham, practice can be the difference between getting into breaking the £1,000 profit mark and missing out. So, make sure that you have familiarised yourself with and practiced the popular horse racing offers before Cheltenham. These include 2nd to SP Fav, 2nd place refund, 4/1 winner, fallers insurance. Simply doing a Saturday’s worth of horse racing reload offers will tick a lot of these boxes. If you would like to understand the concept a little more, we recommend going to the Training Section of Heads&Heads and looking at the guides under the sub-heading, ‘Offer Strategies’. 2. Be Organised This can be best summed up as - make sure that your money is where it needs to be before the end of the weekend prior to Cheltenham (7th & 8th March). Additionally, try to have completed the majority of the welcome offers for the major bookmakers. The key bookmaker to have ready is Bet365 – their Horse racing offer during the festival is massively profitable. Set up a separate PayPal for faster withdrawals. If you've not got a massive exchange balance, then on this rare occasion we recommend boosting its size using your own funds. Of course, because you’re matched betting the only risk is the tiny qualifying loss per offer, which you should be used to by now. The last thing you want is to be missing out on offers and not making the most of the available profit. Try to get some bets on the night before if the odds matches are strong. Know which offers are available on which races and know what offers you want to go for on each race. 3. Go Easy Early Do easy low stake reloads (Free bet on a loss, 2nd place, 2nd to SP favourite, etc) the night before if possible or early morning. The Exchanges will have a lot of liquidity, even hours before the races – meaning that you will not need to worry about unmatched bets when laying. 4. Odds Boosts & VIP Look out for the boosts and make a note to check the Heads&Heads forums facebook group hourly for any updates on potential boosts. These will come thick and fast, but if you are quick, you can create some pretty incredible profit margins. Additionally, make sure you check your email over the 4 days. There will be plenty of bookmakers handing out ‘tailored’ offers to their VIP members. VIP has a loose definition in the eyes of the bookmaker, so you’re likely to get a lot more of these than you think and they are often very lucrative. If you want Heads&Heads to check a VIP offer before you attempt it, just post on the forum or message us on Live Chat. 5. Enjoy It Sounds cliché but don’t let it stress you out. Making money is great but taking the week off work and then running yourself into the ground all week isn't worth it. Matched betting is a side earner – something to enjoy and be done in your spare time to earn you some extra cash. It should not feel like a job. 6. A Small Exchange Balance Is No Excuse! Is it worth taking part with a really small bank like £500'ish? Even if you just did the offers that guaranteed a profit, you’d still make around £250 and this would not require a massive exchange balance. So yes, it is absolutely still worth it. What If I Am Gubbed by Most Bookmakers? This is a very common question and not an unreasonable one either. After all it is incredibly frustrating to have your account with a bookie gubbed. This is even worse when a huge event like Cheltenham is coming up. Honestly, it will restrict your ability to make money, but it is still possible to make a profit from Cheltenham. Extra place strategies are worth looking at (on Heads&Heads Training). This is made possible because Extra place betting doesn’t rely on you using free offers. So, if the bookie has only restricted your use of free offers then this is your best option. Furthermore, if you are restricted from getting reload offers by a bookmaker, you should still be able to take advantage of odds boosts. So, keep an eye out for these on the Heads&Heads Forum. Anything I Should Be Looking Out For? One issue to be aware of is that of the smaller bookmakers offering very generous odds. If an offer looks too good to be true then you should be careful. This was particularly true a couple of years ago, when a lot of smaller bookies offered really good odds and then refused to pay out people’s winnings. This problem is unlikely to occur again (happened in 2017), with bookmakers under the spotlight by legislators like never before. In addition, if you have an account with the bookmaker prior to Cheltenham starting, then you’ll be slightly more trusted by the bookie and thus they will honour your pay-out. Should You Book Time Off Work? Are you planning to take time off work during Cheltenham? This could be a great idea. As well as watching the races on TV, you can stay up to date with all of the offers during the day. However, we want to stress that taking time off work is by no means 'required' to make money during this week. That said, speed will be key for so many of the opportunities during the festival. You may only have a small amount of time to place your bet or lose the opportunity. Being at home will, of course, make this a lot easier. However, not everyone can take all 4 days off. So which days should you prioritise? Simple answer really. The first day – Tuesday (10th March). The reason for this is that the first day sees more offers available than any other single day. The bookies tend to start off strong and tail off towards the end. Cheltenham Schedule Day 1 (Tuesday 10th March 2020) 13:30 -The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 14:10 - The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase 14:50 -The Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase 15:30 - The Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 16:10 - The Mares’ Hurdle 16:50 - The Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase 17:30 - The National Hunt Challenge Cup Day 2 (Wednesday 11th March 2020) 13:30 - The Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle 14:10 - The RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase 14:50 - The Coral Cup 15:30 - The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase 16:10 - The Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 16:50 - The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 17:30 - The Weatherbys Champion Bumper Day 3 (Thursday 12th March 2020) 13:30 - The Marsh Novices’ Chase 14:10 - The Pertemps Network Final 14:50 - The Ryanair Chase 15:30 - The Stayers’ Hurdle 16:10 - The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate 16:50 - Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle 17:30 - The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Day 4 (Friday 13th March 2020) 13:30 - The JCB Triumph Hurdle 14:10 - The Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle 14:50 - The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 15:30 - The Cheltenham Gold Cup 16:10 - The St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup 16:50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase 17:30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Our Predictions Now, predictions may seem a bit useless as we are matched betting. However, knowing who the experts favour to win can help you pick a horse. So, for example, if an offer was triggered if your horse lost, you'd want to be sure you were avoiding those favoured to do well. So, use the below to help inform some of your decisions when completing Cheltenham reload offers. Epatante Epatante has caught the eye of punters during the early betting for the Champion Hurdle and, at the time of writing, rates as one of the strongest race favourites of the week. We likely have not seen the best of this horse. Benie Des Dieux Benie Des Dieux is quoted for a few Cheltenham races this spring but traders at major bookmakers are confident she will run in the Mares Hurdle. If she does, bookies expect her to win the race with a bit to spare. Envoi Allen Envoi Allen is priced as the standout horse in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle and traders believe he will take all the beating. A loss here will rate as one of the biggest upsets of the week. He won each of his first seven starts. Defi Du Seuil Defi Du Seuil can be found quoted in the Champion Chase antepost betting and the early money has been promising. He has won 13 of his first 18 and those stats aren’t to be taken lightly, certainly not by backers. Tiger Roll Tiger Roll is a fans favourite but have we already seen the best of Tiger Roll? As it stands Tiger Roll is the antepost favourite to win the Cross Country Chase and is a short price at that. Every Cheltenham offer will be posted on the Reload section (on Heads&Heads). It is also worth keeping up to date with the Cheltenham Forum thread (on Heads&Heads) – here the best offers of the day will be discussed. If you are interested in giving matched betting a go or Heads&Heads a go I’ve posted a discount code below. As I mentioned at the start of the guide, you can either use it or not. The main thing for me will be people find one or two useful bits of info in this guide. Discount: £2 for 60 days of Premium membership to Heads&Heads. Discount code: BUILDUP Click the link to have the code automatically applied: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=BUILDUP Timetable template for Cheltenham: https://headsandheads.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/Cheltenham+Timetable+-+template.xlsx The most important thing is to get involved! Best of luck and happy profit hunting!
At my most recent Problem Gambling Support Group meeting via Skype (the same one posted on here weekly) it was my turn to do a therapy session. This is my journey from starting gambling until now. I thought it would be worth sharing here as someone may get something from it. It is a bit of a long read. My name is Mark and i’m a compulsive gambler. My last bet was April 2nd 2019. The day of April 2nd was a massive turning point in my life, it was the day I finally admitted to my long term partner, who is the mother of my two children, and to my parents that I was a compulsive gambler and needed help. The weekend prior was when I finally said to myself I’ve had enough, I had been betting for 14 years and it had beaten me so badly that I was a mess mentally and financially. Although no one knew that because I was an expert at hiding it. I started gambling like almost anyone in the UK or Ireland, The Grand National. The one day of the year where it seems like every man, woman and child has a bet on. The biggest horse race in the world. That and those glorious holidays spent in Portrush playing the 2p machines (penny fall machines). I don’t for one second blame those experiences for my gambling problem, they are just my first memories of gambling. One really vivid memory I have of gambling was when I was begging my dad for the latest Official Playstation Magazine, the one with the demo disc, and he was just sitting down to watch England play against someone and said to me “if Paul Scholes scores the first goal I will get you the magazine.” Now, I know for a fact win or lose my Dad would have gotten me the magazine, he just said that so I would give him peace to watch the match. Well I remember watching the game with him hoping with all my might Paul Scholes would score 1st and he did. That adrenaline rush, even at a young age (I was 13 years old at most I would say) was unbelievable. Now, again, I am not blaming that for my gambling addiction at all, it is just one of my first vivid memories but that mentality of gambling to get something I want for free would be a regular pattern throughout my gambling career. Once I turned 18 I opened my first betting account with Blue Sq and that started my online sports gambling journey. Friday nights were spent betting on Wolverhampton all weather horse racing and the Dutch and French 2nd Divisions. All harmless fun, controlled gambling, small stakes. I was still working part time at this stage, left school that summer and gambling was not in the way. Once I got my full time job though that all changed. The first time I could put my finger on when my gambling changed was the first day of the 2008/2009 football season. I’d been working full time for about 3 years and my gambling was still under control, well, at least I thought it was. My stakes were still low and I was doing football bets at the weekend for a bit of fun. I gambled, but it wasn’t causing me any issues. That Friday I walked into a Paddy Power and decided instead of placing a load of stupid football bets for £1 or £2 I’d pick three teams for the season and do a £20 treble each week. Sheffield United, Leicester City and Leeds United were the picks. Of course, the first weekend it landed (the only time it landed all season I think) and my betting changed from that moment. I genuinely can’t remember the odds but I must have lifted over £100 from that £20 stake and after that staking £1 or £2 just wasn’t appealing. What was the point in that when I could stake £20 and win more. From that moment my gambling started to get out of control over time. Then came the loans, the credit cards and the payday loans. At some point around this time I had opened a spread betting account due to a sign up offer. Now I did not have the first clue about spread betting but the offer was they gave you a free £100 or something to sign up so I did. I was still living at home at the time and we had one computer which everyone used. Well my Dad stumbled upon this website and was able to access the account (he’s not technically minded so I imagine I left it logged in) and he seen the betting history and he went mental at me. Now, I did explain that it was just bonus funds and I hadn’t actually deposited any of my own money but still the lecture came. It felt like a lecture at the time to me but he was just warning me of the dangers of gambling. Giving me examples of people he knew who had a problem and how easy it is for a gambling problem to begin. So I can never turn around and say that I wasn’t aware of the dangers, I was, my ego was just too big to listen. I paid lip service to the lecture and said I wouldn’t do it again and my Dad took me at my word and trusted me. So, I knew early on I had a problem. I self excluded from places over the years but never really wanted to quit. I was getting in debt but was able to continue with my lifestyle as I was living at home. I remember one day going to a cheque cashing place where I could write a cheque for £100, dated on my next payday, and they’d give me £90 there and then. I did two cheques for going out that weekend (and a couple of bets on the Aintree Festival) walked straight to the bookies and had the £180 on Denman to win the Aintree Bowl at even money. Denman was a monster of a horse, a machine. He could not lose...then he suffered the first fall of his career. Back I went to the cheque cashing place for another £90 so I could still go out that weekend. I wasn’t learning from my betting mistakes either as I was just borrowing more money to cover the cracks. I got a few debt consolidating loans over the early years to try and get a handle on my debt but it just gave me an excuse to take out more credit. The payday loans which I used to either gamble or cover my expenses for going out because I used all my money gambling. I would borrow money off my Dad and give him the puppy dog eyes when I paid it back and normally he’d only take half of what I owed him. He thought he was doing the right thing and he wanted me to have money to be able to go out with friends, I was just manipulating the situation. I moved out and into my friends house for a year and the gambling continued, although I had less money to gamble with. My credit rating was taking a battering but I was young and didn’t really care. Then I met my current girlfriend in February 2010 and we moved in together that September. The gambling continued and was getting worse. I made the smart move to get a second job to supplement my gambling…...at a greyhound track. I’d be earning about £20 a night but gambling £60 or £80. Insanity. We had our first child in April 2012 and not long after she found out I’d be gambling some of the money we’d saved. It wasn’t a lot of money, but she was pissed (rightfully so). I managed to talk my way out of it and that was when I became really good at hiding things. She took control of the rent money and any money for our son so that was never in danger thankfully. We had our daughter in 2016 but the gambling still continued. It may seem like I have glossed over an important period of time there but the truth is I can’t really remember any of the details. The only details I am able to recall with any great clarity are coming up but I just want to touch on a couple of things from this period. This was a time when I had the biggest wins of my gambling career, two separate occasions. One was an insane run of luck where I couldn’t lose all weekend and ended up with enough money for me, my partner and our Son to have our first and only foreign holiday. Another time I had a £5 free bet and landed a treble at Sandown, all Gary Moore horses and won £3.5k. That money went towards decorating the nursery for my soon to be born Daughter, my partner got money, my Mum and Dad and her Mum and Dad. I bought a PS4 and gambled the rest from memory. The two reasons these moments stick in my head isn’t just the amounts, it’s the only time I walked away in profit, at least for the sessions in question and the reason is that I told my partner I had won the money. That was the only way I knew I wouldn’t gamble it all away because she would ask questions if the money I promised didn’t materialise. Another part of this time period I want to explore is how I was emotionally. I was 25 when we had our Son and he wasn’t planned. It was a shock to say the least and my life, as I knew it anyways, changed. No longer was I able to do what I wanted socially, I had a Son to provide for. I was working two jobs, money was tight, was I still gambling? Of course I was but slowly I started to strip everything else out of my life. We had our daughter when I was 29 and to be honest here, as much as it sadeness me I thought this way I resented having kids, especially at that age. I felt trapped at times, people I knew were able to do what they want but yet I had all this responsibility. Don’t get me wrong, I loved my kids during this time as well and they meant the world to me, but I do feel that I got into the thought process that I was trapped because of them and my only escape was into the world of online gambling. I would go through phases where I’d stop altogether for months on end, a year at one point which I imagine was around the time my partner found out about me using the savings for gambling, but I’d always go back to it thinking I was in control but I never was. When gambling I’d deposit £10, lose it, deposit another £10, lose it, rinse and repeat until all my money was gone. If I won it just meant I could gamble longer. It was never about the money. I thought it was, but really the money was the fuel that could keep me gambling longer. Most months I was skint a few days after payday and couldn’t gamble until the next payday. It may not sound like a lot of money but it was a relentless cycle month after month after month. At the end of 2016 I got an overdraft of £2k and gambled it all on soccer all around the world. Woke up and started gambling in Asia, moved across the globe into the Middle East, Africa, Europe and then fell asleep betting on South American football. It was out of control. Betting on Egyptian football on Xmas Day a particular lowlight. This was what my gambling looked like when I had money. All these bets were in-play as that’s how I gambled, watching a little graphic on Bet365 and thinking I could predict what was going to happen. I also gambled heavily on tennis as well, picking a player to win a set 6-0 was one of my favourites. Generally I would start with £10 as I mentioned and if the bet won I would keep “investing” all the money until it got to a certain amount, normally a couple of hundred quid. Once I got to that point I would raise my stakes significantly because I would tell myself it wasn’t my money. It wasn’t if I didn’t count all the loses it took to get to this point over the previous few days. I would then gamble that until it’s gone cursing myself for not taking the money when I had the chance. Placing the last of my money praying to a god I don’t believe in that if he could just make this bet land then I wouldn’t bet again. Once the money was done I would just sit there, looking at my bank balance, the lack of money, the direct debits due to come out in a few days, trying to figure out how I would survive the next 3-4 weeks until payday. Then I would dust myself off and start working on some budgets. What direct debits I could bounce, who I could ask to borrow money from or maybe what I could sell to fund another round of gambling to try and win my money back. Coming into 2018 I was in a “good place” with gambling, or so I thought. I was Matched Betting which was a way of making money via bookmakers offers. It worked well for a few months but it all went to shit in the Summer of 2018. Matched Betting introduced me to the casino side of things and I lost £3.5k on roulette. I’ll not go into the ins and outs of how I had that sort of money, lets just say I didn’t and I found a way to deposit via direct debit on PayPal and of course those all bounced. Luckily Paddy Power rewarded me by making me a VIP customer after that, every cloud and all that. So I was chasing big style and getting free £50 bonuses each week from them but I could never get enough money to stop, because no amount was ever going to be enough. Their offers of Money Back if Horse X wins are normally £10 max refund, I was getting £100 max refund. Eventually I was running out of ways to get money and when I started to bet less with Paddy Power they removed my VIP status. I did win £1000 on an NFL bet and lost the lot on roulette the next week. Another lowlight. The win on the NFL followed by the lose on roulette sticks in my mind because visually it summed up how miserable I was. I had promised my partner back at the start of the year that we would get the living room redecorated and I would pay with it from my Matched Betting and she was happy with that. Of course I explained it was risk free and nothing could go wrong and it wasn’t even gambling. Anyways, come November we are due to have our living room redecorated and of course I do not have the money for it so I have to go to my Mum and Dad. I give them some sob story about how when I was Matched Betting I made a mistake, layed off the wrong horse and lost my money so could then lend me it and don’t tell my partner. It was a complete lie and to be honest at the time I didn’t think they had bought it but they lent me the money. Turns out when I told them about my gambling problem back in April they had smelt bull shit but my Granda (on my Dad’s side) was ill in the hospital and he was stressed about that so he just let it slide. So the redecoration was on and it was going to take a couple of days. One Monday night I had a bet on the NFL and it landed, £10 at 100/1. Happy days, I can give my Mum and Dad back their money, it’s nearly Xmas, this is amazing luck. So on Tuesday night I sat in my half decorated living room and thought if I could just win a little bit more then things would be even better so loaded up the roulette. I lost it all sitting in the living room and during it I could literally see what the money would be paying for but it didn’t stop me, nothing would stop me. 2019 I could feel myself struggling. My life was consumed with gambling or working out how to get money to gamble and then how I was going to pay people back what I owed them. I was in a bad place, I was a bad person, lying, angry but still no one knew the truth. January had always been a tough month as I run several NFL Fantasy Football leagues for money and I am in charge of the money. Of course, that was always gambled away by me and January was the month people expected pay outs because the season was over. Usually I would have won enough money in my leagues to cover it or convince people to pay for next year with their winnings that I could cover it. This year I could not and I had the added pressure of owing people money. A lot of these people were friends of mine I knew personally, others were people I had gotten to know over a few years and only talked online. Either way I had stolen their money and gambled it away. I managed to use my Granda’s death in January as an excuse for why I had not paid people yet, I was in a bad way with the funeral etc, all the excuses, the truth is I was just trying to buy more time. Then came the weekend prior to April 2nd. I had just been paid and deposited some money into my Bet365 account and managed to get my balance up to £910 on Friday 29th March. I should say by this stage I was fully gambling on tennis. Not match winner, that took too long, generally set winner or next game winner as that was quicker. Now this £910 would have cleared some of my urgent debts to allow me to continue on gambling. All I had to do was withdraw, and I was going to…...once I got it up to a nice round £1000. As you can guess I lost the lot. £300-£400 on Benoit Paire was one of the worst hits but I was gambling like a mad man. That was how I bet when I had winnings, the stakes got out of control. By the time I was leaving work at 6pm on the Friday the whole £910 was gone. I was betting on ATP, Challenger, ITF, any tennis that was on I was betting on it. Back in the day I remember betting on a tennis match where they had one ball. Still a story that brings a smile to my face if I’m honest. A smile that consists of a mixture of shame and cringe. That Friday night I deposited whatever I had left in and managed to win back a good chunk of the money, but it still wasn’t enough. It still wasn’t what I had before. So the whole weekend went like that, up and down, up and down. I went to a family dinner and sat betting on my phone the whole night. That’s how my life has been the last number of years, i’m present at gatherings, or nights out but my mind is deep in my phone gambling away not giving a shit about anyone. Eventually the money ran out that weekend. I was a mess. I could have actually made it work financially and gotten through the month but mentally I was gone. I could tell my brain had put me into a nosedive and the only way this was all ending was in disaster. Maybe not this month, or this year but I was being flown towards rock bottom. I sat down on the Monday and wrote out everything that I owed, who I owed it to, a budget going forward. It was grim enough reading, £18k in the hole. The money wasn’t the issue, it was how it was making me feel, the time I’ve been wasting. The fact that I finally couldn’t take anymore, that I was ready to wave the white flag and say gambling has won, it defeated me. I found out when and where the nearest GA Meeting was to me and wrote that down too. So I found a set of balls and on the Tuesday I told my girlfriend. My attitude was that life can’t be any worse for me than it currently is. I was a mess, I cried, I honestly expected her to tell me to get out and I wouldn’t have blamed her, but she was amazing. She was angry obviously, but she was so supportive. Then I called my parents round and told them. They were disappointed, confused but also really supportive. Then the next day I told my closest friends who were again all really supportive. I owe them some money too and they’ve been great about setting up a payment plan to pay that back. I can imagine some people saying that I didn’t hit rock bottom in comparison to others, I felt that way myself to be honest. I felt like I had gotten off lightly but looking back the cycle I was in was soul destroying and although I didn’t cause the devastation others have caused I knew I needed to reach out for help as I couldn’t do it on my own. I registered for GAMStop and self excluded online for 5 years which has taken the avenue of online gambling away from me. A vital step if online is your vice. I also handed over control of my finances to my partner which again removed another temptation. I’ve since learned in recovery that gamblers need 3 things, time, opportunity and money, take away one of those and you won’t be able to gamble. I took away two with these simple steps. I then went to my first GA Meeting on Wednesday 3rd April. The time doesn’t suit me for that, Monday at 9pm is my meeting but I felt I needed to get to one ASAP. I don’t know what I expected GA to be, some sort of church run cult filled with a bunch of old men desperate for a bet but it’s one of the most amazing groups I’ve ever found. It’s a dumping ground for all my shit and it’s a place where I can listen to other people’s stories. Without sounding sexist, it’s something a lot of men could do with outside of addiction, a place to talk about life and how they are feeling. I take a 50 mile round trip every Monday to get there. When I was gambling if I had to travel 50 miles to get internet to gamble you can guarantee I’d have travelled every day. When I leave a meeting I am buzzing, for all the right reasons. I’m a lifer when it comes to GA now and I am fine with that. I am also a member of the Problem Gambling Support Group and we run three meetings a week via Skype. This group has been so influential to my recovery and I have met so many good people I now consider friends through it. The topic meeting style is completely different to what happens at my own GA so it fits into my recovery perfectly and gives me a different perspective. I have a sponsor, who has had a massive impact on my recovery. He has helped me work the Steps and is always there if I need him. At times it’s hard to tell who is sponsoring who but that sort of dynamic works well for me as I see him as a friend first and sponsosponsee second. I have also found a passion for writing about my journey and post my stuff on my blog, on GamCare and on the Reddit Problem Gambling Sub. I have been told my stuff is very good and people seem to get a lot from it. As I explained at a recent meeting I am still learning how to deal with praise, it makes me feel awkward. I’m not sure if it’s from years of not wanting to be the focus of people's attention because of the fear they might ask questions and my addiction would be exposed. Whatever the reason I am working on being able to accept praise and enjoy it and as I was told at the last meeting...a simple thank you is usually enough. I’ve been clean for over 9 months now, and I have not struggled with urges to gamble. My life is amazing, it always was but I was too wrapped up in my addiction to notice. I literally had everything I could ever want. I have an amazing partner and two amazing children along with my parents who are absolutely fantastic. I have my health, a job and my friends are another support network I couldn’t do without now. They stood by me when I admitted my problem and they gave me the belief that I could do this. Recovery is now my focus along with my family. The debt can be managed, stopping gambling is one day at a time, but the main focus of my recovery will be fixing my character defects, helping others, being open and honest to people and not being a selfish asshole. I would like to think those that know me now can at least drop the selfish part when describing me. I have put plenty of work into my recovery and I feel like I am getting the benefits out of it. I have a routine when it comes to meetings and they don’t impact on my family life. Is every day amazing? No it’s not. Some days are rather boring and some days are tough, but that’s life. Some days you have to make chicken salad out of chicken shit. I have accepted what I am, I am a compulsive gambler and I need to be the one who changes. No one else around me needs to change, I am the common denominator. I have noticed a change in myself and those closest to me. They all seem happier, more content, happy to have this me in their life and not the old me. I wasn’t a nice partner, father, son or friend when I was in active addiction. I don’t want to be the person I was before I started gambling either because I am pretty convinced he was an asshole as well. I am using this recovery to become the man I want to be, the man I can look in the mirror and be proud to be. As I said, I have accepted that I am a compulsive gambler and I cannot have a single bet because it will lead me back to active addiction. I have no issues with the gambling industry or people who gamble, I just know that I am unable to gamble as it ends in disaster. I feel there should be more discussion around problem gambling and the industry should be putting more money into helping problem gamblers and to help identify problem gamblers. It’s a fine line though, as I know if a bookie told me they felt I had a problem and wouldn’t accept a bet I’d have been angry and just went somewhere else. You need to be ready for recovery to fully embrace it. I never was until April 2nd. For the people in recovery we need to be ready to help those that get to the stage where they are ready for recovery. We are the ones who these people will come to rely on as we’ve been through it, you can tell when talking to someone who hasn’t had a gambling addiction they just don’t understand. Over the coming years I think there will be a significant rise in people looking for help with problem gambling. I don’t feel like my story is close to the worst out there and I have read and heard some people who have the opinion that you need to cause devastation before recovery will work. That’s bollocks and that sort of attitude is why GA is filled with old men and young people are reluctant to stay. I have come to believe it doesn’t matter how much you have lost, how many relationships you have destroyed or what age you are, all you need is a desire to stop gambling and that is the qualification for entering recovery. For now though, for me, my next bet won’t be about the money I lose, I’ll lose my partner and my children as well and that’s not a bet that I am not willing to make. Mark
With Cheltenham Festival coming up, I thought I’d put together a comprehensive guide and overview for what is THE most profitable time for matched bettors. So whether you have been doing matched betting for a while or you’re completely new to the concept, with a bit of luck this post should be interesting/useful. Just a quick disclaimer. Throughout this guide I will be referencing Heads&Heads, however, this is not a promotional piece. The advice below can be used and applied to whichever service you happen to be with. There will be an offer at the bottom of this guide. Ignore it if you are not interested, I won’t be offended – the important thing is we all smash Cheltenham while it is still so profitable. Firstly, why exactly is this such a profitable time for Matched Bettors? Well, simply put, the Cheltenham Festival is one of the world’s biggest horse racing events. As such, all the bookmakers will be falling over themselves to ensure punters place their bets with them rather than their competitors. Why Cheltenham is a Big Deal Cheltenham Festival is one of the busiest times of the year for bookmakers with projections of around £500 million to be placed in bets over the 4 days of racing. There are a total of 28 races to bet on giving an average of around £17,850,000 bet on each race. Punters at the Festival and around the country betting online jump on early ante-post markets and last minute bets. The rise of mobile betting in recently years has given bookmakers a new way to connect with customers and now it’s easier than ever to place a bet wherever you are. With so much money involved in betting on races at Cheltenham, bookies fight for customers in the run-up and during the festival. One way bookies entice customers to bet with them over a competitor is to run special promotions for the races. These can be in the form of free bet offers, money back specials, extra places, best odds guaranteed and more. Punters looking for the best value in their bets should take advantage of these enhanced offers while they are around as they can result in increased returns and minimised losses. All of this plays into the hands of matched bettors like us, who can take advantage of the value without incurring risk. If you are holding back on completing welcome offers before Cheltenham, then you should know that several bookmakers run enhanced offers throughout Cheltenham. Some of the more popular ones being Betfair, SkyBet, Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred. 6 Steps For Tackling Cheltenham With all the offers and potential profit flying around it can become a little overwhelming. The best place to start is by simply practicing the basics - and that is our first of six steps for getting ready to tackle Cheltenham. Note: I will update this post with the key offers closer to the time. 1. Practice Makes Perfect When it comes to matched betting you can never get enough practice! You may think you understand every reload strategy there is. However, when the offers come as quickly as they do during Cheltenham, practice can be the difference between getting into breaking the £1,000 profit mark and missing out. So, make sure that you have familiarised yourself with and practiced the popular horse racing offers before Cheltenham. These include 2nd to SP Fav, 2nd place refund, 4/1 winner, fallers insurance. Simply doing a Saturday’s worth of horse racing reload offers will tick a lot of these boxes. If you would like to understand the concept a little more, we recommend going to the Training Section of Heads&Heads and looking at the guides under the sub-heading, ‘Offer Strategies’. 2. Be Organised This can be best summed up as - make sure that your money is where it needs to be before the end of the weekend prior to Cheltenham (7th & 8th March). Additionally, try to have completed the majority of the welcome offers for the major bookmakers. The key bookmaker to have ready is Bet365 – their Horse racing offer during the festival is massively profitable. Set up a separate PayPal for faster withdrawals. If you've not got a massive exchange balance, then on this rare occasion we recommend boosting its size using your own funds. Of course, because you’re matched betting the only risk is the tiny qualifying loss per offer, which you should be used to by now. The last thing you want is to be missing out on offers and not making the most of the available profit. Try to get some bets on the night before if the odds matches are strong. Know which offers are available on which races and know what offers you want to go for on each race. 3. Go Easy Early Do easy low stake reloads (Free bet on a loss, 2nd place, 2nd to SP favourite, etc) the night before if possible or early morning. The Exchanges will have a lot of liquidity, even hours before the races – meaning that you will not need to worry about unmatched bets when laying. 4. Odds Boosts & VIP Look out for the boosts and make a note to check the Heads&Heads forums facebook group hourly for any updates on potential boosts. These will come thick and fast, but if you are quick, you can create some pretty incredible profit margins. Additionally, make sure you check your email over the 4 days. There will be plenty of bookmakers handing out ‘tailored’ offers to their VIP members. VIP has a loose definition in the eyes of the bookmaker, so you’re likely to get a lot more of these than you think and they are often very lucrative. If you want Heads&Heads to check a VIP offer before you attempt it, just post on the forum or message us on Live Chat. 5. Enjoy It Sounds cliché but don’t let it stress you out. Making money is great but taking the week off work and then running yourself into the ground all week isn't worth it. Matched betting is a side earner – something to enjoy and be done in your spare time to earn you some extra cash. It should not feel like a job. 6. A Small Exchange Balance Is No Excuse! Is it worth taking part with a really small bank like £500'ish? Even if you just did the offers that guaranteed a profit, you’d still make around £250 and this would not require a massive exchange balance. So yes, it is absolutely still worth it. What If I Am Gubbed by Most Bookmakers? This is a very common question and not an unreasonable one either. After all it is incredibly frustrating to have your account with a bookie gubbed. This is even worse when a huge event like Cheltenham is coming up. Honestly, it will restrict your ability to make money, but it is still possible to make a profit from Cheltenham. Extra place strategies are worth looking at (on Heads&Heads Training). This is made possible because Extra place betting doesn’t rely on you using free offers. So, if the bookie has only restricted your use of free offers then this is your best option. Furthermore, if you are restricted from getting reload offers by a bookmaker, you should still be able to take advantage of odds boosts. So, keep an eye out for these on the Heads&Heads Forum. Anything I Should Be Looking Out For? One issue to be aware of is that of the smaller bookmakers offering very generous odds. If an offer looks too good to be true then you should be careful. This was particularly true a couple of years ago, when a lot of smaller bookies offered really good odds and then refused to pay out people’s winnings. This problem is unlikely to occur again (happened in 2017), with bookmakers under the spotlight by legislators like never before. In addition, if you have an account with the bookmaker prior to Cheltenham starting, then you’ll be slightly more trusted by the bookie and thus they will honour your pay-out. Should You Book Time Off Work? Are you planning to take time off work during Cheltenham? This could be a great idea. As well as watching the races on TV, you can stay up to date with all of the offers during the day. However, we want to stress that taking time off work is by no means 'required' to make money during this week. That said, speed will be key for so many of the opportunities during the festival. You may only have a small amount of time to place your bet or lose the opportunity. Being at home will, of course, make this a lot easier. However, not everyone can take all 4 days off. So which days should you prioritise? Simple answer really. The first day – Tuesday (10th March). The reason for this is that the first day sees more offers available than any other single day. The bookies tend to start off strong and tail off towards the end. Cheltenham Schedule Day 1 (Tuesday 10th March 2020) 13:30 -The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 14:10 - The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase 14:50 -The Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase 15:30 - The Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 16:10 - The Mares’ Hurdle 16:50 - The Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase 17:30 - The National Hunt Challenge Cup Day 2 (Wednesday 11th March 2020) 13:30 - The Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle 14:10 - The RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase 14:50 - The Coral Cup 15:30 - The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase 16:10 - The Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 16:50 - The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 17:30 - The Weatherbys Champion Bumper Day 3 (Thursday 12th March 2020) 13:30 - The Marsh Novices’ Chase 14:10 - The Pertemps Network Final 14:50 - The Ryanair Chase 15:30 - The Stayers’ Hurdle 16:10 - The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate 16:50 - Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle 17:30 - The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Day 4 (Friday 13th March 2020) 13:30 - The JCB Triumph Hurdle 14:10 - The Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle 14:50 - The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 15:30 - The Cheltenham Gold Cup 16:10 - The St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup 16:50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase 17:30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Our Predictions Now, predictions may seem a bit useless as we are matched betting. However, knowing who the experts favour to win can help you pick a horse. So, for example, if an offer was triggered if your horse lost, you'd want to be sure you were avoiding those favoured to do well. So, use the below to help inform some of your decisions when completing Cheltenham reload offers. Epatante Epatante has caught the eye of punters during the early betting for the Champion Hurdle and, at the time of writing, rates as one of the strongest race favourites of the week. We likely have not seen the best of this horse. Benie Des Dieux Benie Des Dieux is quoted for a few Cheltenham races this spring but traders at major bookmakers are confident she will run in the Mares Hurdle. If she does, bookies expect her to win the race with a bit to spare. Envoi Allen Envoi Allen is priced as the standout horse in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle and traders believe he will take all the beating. A loss here will rate as one of the biggest upsets of the week. He won each of his first seven starts. Defi Du Seuil Defi Du Seuil can be found quoted in the Champion Chase antepost betting and the early money has been promising. He has won 13 of his first 18 and those stats aren’t to be taken lightly, certainly not by backers. Tiger Roll Tiger Roll is a fans favourite but have we already seen the best of Tiger Roll? As it stands Tiger Roll is the antepost favourite to win the Cross Country Chase and is a short price at that. Every Cheltenham offer will be posted on the Reload section (on Heads&Heads). It is also worth keeping up to date with the Cheltenham Forum thread (on Heads&Heads) – here the best offers of the day will be discussed. If you are interested in giving matched betting a go or Heads&Heads a go I’ve posted a discount code below. As I mentioned at the start of the guide, you can either use it or not. The main thing for me will be people find one or two useful bits of info in this guide. Discount: £2 for 60 days of Premium membership to Heads&Heads. Discount code: BUILDUP Click the link to have the code automatically applied: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=BUILDUP Timetable template for Cheltenham: https://headsandheads.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/Cheltenham+Timetable+-+template.xlsx The most important thing is to get involved! Best of luck and happy profit hunting!
With Cheltenham Festival coming up, I thought I’d put together a comprehensive guide and overview for what is THE most profitable time for matched bettors. So whether you have been doing matched betting for a while or you’re completely new to the concept, with a bit of luck this post should be interesting/useful. Just a quick disclaimer. Throughout this guide I will be referencing Heads&Heads, however, this is not a promotional piece. The advice below can be used and applied to whichever service you happen to be with. There will be an offer at the bottom of this guide. Ignore it if you are not interested, I won’t be offended – the important thing is we all smash Cheltenham while it is still so profitable. Firstly, why exactly is this such a profitable time for Matched Bettors? Well, simply put, the Cheltenham Festival is one of the world’s biggest horse racing events. As such, all the bookmakers will be falling over themselves to ensure punters place their bets with them rather than their competitors. Why Cheltenham is a Big Deal Cheltenham Festival is one of the busiest times of the year for bookmakers with projections of around £500 million to be placed in bets over the 4 days of racing. There are a total of 28 races to bet on giving an average of around £17,850,000 bet on each race. Punters at the Festival and around the country betting online jump on early ante-post markets and last minute bets. The rise of mobile betting in recently years has given bookmakers a new way to connect with customers and now it’s easier than ever to place a bet wherever you are. With so much money involved in betting on races at Cheltenham, bookies fight for customers in the run-up and during the festival. One way bookies entice customers to bet with them over a competitor is to run special promotions for the races. These can be in the form of free bet offers, money back specials, extra places, best odds guaranteed and more. Punters looking for the best value in their bets should take advantage of these enhanced offers while they are around as they can result in increased returns and minimised losses. All of this plays into the hands of matched bettors like us, who can take advantage of the value without incurring risk. If you are holding back on completing welcome offers before Cheltenham, then you should know that several bookmakers run enhanced offers throughout Cheltenham. Some of the more popular ones being Betfair, SkyBet, Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred. 6 Steps For Tackling Cheltenham With all the offers and potential profit flying around it can become a little overwhelming. The best place to start is by simply practicing the basics - and that is our first of six steps for getting ready to tackle Cheltenham. 1. Practice Makes Perfect When it comes to matched betting you can never get enough practice! You may think you understand every reload strategy there is. However, when the offers come as quickly as they do during Cheltenham, practice can be the difference between getting into breaking the £1,000 profit mark and missing out. So, make sure that you have familiarised yourself with and practiced the popular horse racing offers before Cheltenham. These include 2nd to SP Fav, 2nd place refund, 4/1 winner, fallers insurance. Simply doing a Saturday’s worth of horse racing reload offers will tick a lot of these boxes. If you would like to understand the concept a little more, we recommend going to the Training Section of Heads&Heads and looking at the guides under the sub-heading, ‘Offer Strategies’. 2. Be Organised This can be best summed up as - make sure that your money is where it needs to be before the end of the weekend prior to Cheltenham (7th & 8th March). Additionally, try to have completed the majority of the welcome offers for the major bookmakers. The key bookmaker to have ready is Bet365 – their Horse racing offer during the festival is massively profitable. Set up a separate PayPal for faster withdrawals. If you've not got a massive exchange balance, then on this rare occasion we recommend boosting its size using your own funds. Of course, because you’re matched betting the only risk is the tiny qualifying loss per offer, which you should be used to by now. The last thing you want is to be missing out on offers and not making the most of the available profit. Try to get some bets on the night before if the odds matches are strong. Know which offers are available on which races and know what offers you want to go for on each race. 3. Go Easy Early Do easy low stake reloads (Free bet on a loss, 2nd place, 2nd to SP favourite, etc) the night before if possible or early morning. The Exchanges will have a lot of liquidity, even hours before the races – meaning that you will not need to worry about unmatched bets when laying. 4. Odds Boosts & VIP Look out for the boosts and make a note to check the Heads&Heads forums facebook group hourly for any updates on potential boosts. These will come thick and fast, but if you are quick, you can create some pretty incredible profit margins. Additionally, make sure you check your email over the 4 days. There will be plenty of bookmakers handing out ‘tailored’ offers to their VIP members. VIP has a loose definition in the eyes of the bookmaker, so you’re likely to get a lot more of these than you think and they are often very lucrative. If you want Heads&Heads to check a VIP offer before you attempt it, just post on the forum or message us on Live Chat. 5. Enjoy It Sounds cliché but don’t let it stress you out. Making money is great but taking the week off work and then running yourself into the ground all week isn't worth it. Matched betting is a side earner – something to enjoy and be done in your spare time to earn you some extra cash. It should not feel like a job. 6. A Small Exchange Balance Is No Excuse! Is it worth taking part with a really small bank like £500'ish? Even if you just did the offers that guaranteed a profit, you’d still make around £250 and this would not require a massive exchange balance. So yes, it is absolutely still worth it. What If I Am Gubbed by Most Bookmakers? This is a very common question and not an unreasonable one either. After all it is incredibly frustrating to have your account with a bookie gubbed. This is even worse when a huge event like Cheltenham is coming up. Honestly, it will restrict your ability to make money, but it is still possible to make a profit from Cheltenham. Extra place strategies are worth looking at (on Heads&Heads Training). This is made possible because Extra place betting doesn’t rely on you using free offers. So, if the bookie has only restricted your use of free offers then this is your best option. Furthermore, if you are restricted from getting reload offers by a bookmaker, you should still be able to take advantage of odds boosts. So, keep an eye out for these on the Heads&Heads Forum. Anything I Should Be Looking Out For? One issue to be aware of is that of the smaller bookmakers offering very generous odds. If an offer looks too good to be true then you should be careful. This was particularly true a couple of years ago, when a lot of smaller bookies offered really good odds and then refused to pay out people’s winnings. This problem is unlikely to occur again (happened in 2017), with bookmakers under the spotlight by legislators like never before. In addition, if you have an account with the bookmaker prior to Cheltenham starting, then you’ll be slightly more trusted by the bookie and thus they will honour your pay-out. Should You Book Time Off Work? Are you planning to take time off work during Cheltenham? This could be a great idea. As well as watching the races on TV, you can stay up to date with all of the offers during the day. However, we want to stress that taking time off work is by no means 'required' to make money during this week. That said, speed will be key for so many of the opportunities during the festival. You may only have a small amount of time to place your bet or lose the opportunity. Being at home will, of course, make this a lot easier. However, not everyone can take all 4 days off. So which days should you prioritise? Simple answer really. The first day – Tuesday (10th March). The reason for this is that the first day sees more offers available than any other single day. The bookies tend to start off strong and tail off towards the end. Cheltenham Schedule Day 1 (Tuesday 10th March 2020) 13:30 -The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 14:10 - The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase 14:50 -The Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase 15:30 - The Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 16:10 - The Mares’ Hurdle 16:50 - The Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase 17:30 - The National Hunt Challenge Cup Day 2 (Wednesday 11th March 2020) 13:30 - The Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle 14:10 - The RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase 14:50 - The Coral Cup 15:30 - The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase 16:10 - The Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 16:50 - The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 17:30 - The Weatherbys Champion Bumper Day 3 (Thursday 12th March 2020) 13:30 - The Marsh Novices’ Chase 14:10 - The Pertemps Network Final 14:50 - The Ryanair Chase 15:30 - The Stayers’ Hurdle 16:10 - The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate 16:50 - Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle 17:30 - The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Day 4 (Friday 13th March 2020) 13:30 - The JCB Triumph Hurdle 14:10 - The Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle 14:50 - The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 15:30 - The Cheltenham Gold Cup 16:10 - The St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup 16:50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase 17:30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Our Predictions Now, predictions may seem a bit useless as we are matched betting. However, knowing who the experts favour to win can help you pick a horse. So, for example, if an offer was triggered if your horse lost, you'd want to be sure you were avoiding those favoured to do well. So, use the below to help inform some of your decisions when completing Cheltenham reload offers. Epatante Epatante has caught the eye of punters during the early betting for the Champion Hurdle and, at the time of writing, rates as one of the strongest race favourites of the week. We likely have not seen the best of this horse. Benie Des Dieux Benie Des Dieux is quoted for a few Cheltenham races this spring but traders at major bookmakers are confident she will run in the Mares Hurdle. If she does, bookies expect her to win the race with a bit to spare. Envoi Allen Envoi Allen is priced as the standout horse in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle and traders believe he will take all the beating. A loss here will rate as one of the biggest upsets of the week. He won each of his first seven starts. Defi Du Seuil Defi Du Seuil can be found quoted in the Champion Chase antepost betting and the early money has been promising. He has won 13 of his first 18 and those stats aren’t to be taken lightly, certainly not by backers. Tiger Roll Tiger Roll is a fans favourite but have we already seen the best of Tiger Roll? As it stands Tiger Roll is the antepost favourite to win the Cross Country Chase and is a short price at that. Every Cheltenham offer will be posted on the Reload section (on Heads&Heads). It is also worth keeping up to date with the Cheltenham Forum thread (on Heads&Heads) – here the best offers of the day will be discussed. If you are interested in giving matched betting a go or Heads&Heads a go I’ve posted a discount code below. As I mentioned at the start of the guide, you can either use it or not. The main thing for me will be people find one or two useful bits of info in this guide. Discount: £2 for 60 days of Premium membership to Heads&Heads. Discount code: BUILDUP Click the link to have the code automatically applied: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=BUILDUP Timetable template for Cheltenham: https://headsandheads.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/Cheltenham+Timetable+-+template.xlsx The most important thing is to get involved! Best of luck and happy profit hunting!
With Cheltenham Festival coming up, I thought I’d put together a comprehensive guide and overview for what is THE most profitable time for matched bettors. So whether you have been doing matched betting for a while or you’re completely new to the concept, with a bit of luck this post should be interesting/useful. Just a quick disclaimer. Throughout this guide I will be referencing Heads&Heads, however, this is not a promotional piece. The advice below can be used and applied to whichever service you happen to be with. There will be an offer at the bottom of this guide. Ignore it if you are not interested, I won’t be offended – the important thing is we all smash Cheltenham while it is still so profitable. Firstly, why exactly is this such a profitable time for Matched Bettors? Well, simply put, the Cheltenham Festival is one of the world’s biggest horse racing events. As such, all the bookmakers will be falling over themselves to ensure punters place their bets with them rather than their competitors. Why Cheltenham is a Big Deal Cheltenham Festival is one of the busiest times of the year for bookmakers with projections of around £500 million to be placed in bets over the 4 days of racing. There are a total of 28 races to bet on giving an average of around £17,850,000 bet on each race. Punters at the Festival and around the country betting online jump on early ante-post markets and last minute bets. The rise of mobile betting in recently years has given bookmakers a new way to connect with customers and now it’s easier than ever to place a bet wherever you are. With so much money involved in betting on races at Cheltenham, bookies fight for customers in the run-up and during the festival. One way bookies entice customers to bet with them over a competitor is to run special promotions for the races. These can be in the form of free bet offers, money back specials, extra places, best odds guaranteed and more. Punters looking for the best value in their bets should take advantage of these enhanced offers while they are around as they can result in increased returns and minimised losses. All of this plays into the hands of matched bettors like us, who can take advantage of the value without incurring risk. If you are holding back on completing welcome offers before Cheltenham, then you should know that several bookmakers run enhanced offers throughout Cheltenham. Some of the more popular ones being Betfair, SkyBet, Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred. 6 Steps For Tackling Cheltenham With all the offers and potential profit flying around it can become a little overwhelming. The best place to start is by simply practicing the basics - and that is our first of six steps for getting ready to tackle Cheltenham. 1. Practice Makes Perfect When it comes to matched betting you can never get enough practice! You may think you understand every reload strategy there is. However, when the offers come as quickly as they do during Cheltenham, practice can be the difference between getting into breaking the £1,000 profit mark and missing out. So, make sure that you have familiarised yourself with and practiced the popular horse racing offers before Cheltenham. These include 2nd to SP Fav, 2nd place refund, 4/1 winner, fallers insurance. Simply doing a Saturday’s worth of horse racing reload offers will tick a lot of these boxes. If you would like to understand the concept a little more, we recommend going to the Training Section of Heads&Heads and looking at the guides under the sub-heading, ‘Offer Strategies’. 2. Be Organised This can be best summed up as - make sure that your money is where it needs to be before the end of the weekend prior to Cheltenham (7th & 8th March). Additionally, try to have completed the majority of the welcome offers for the major bookmakers. The key bookmaker to have ready is Bet365 – their Horse racing offer during the festival is massively profitable. Set up a separate PayPal for faster withdrawals. If you've not got a massive exchange balance, then on this rare occasion we recommend boosting its size using your own funds. Of course, because you’re matched betting the only risk is the tiny qualifying loss per offer, which you should be used to by now. The last thing you want is to be missing out on offers and not making the most of the available profit. Try to get some bets on the night before if the odds matches are strong. Know which offers are available on which races and know what offers you want to go for on each race. 3. Go Easy Early Do easy low stake reloads (Free bet on a loss, 2nd place, 2nd to SP favourite, etc) the night before if possible or early morning. The Exchanges will have a lot of liquidity, even hours before the races – meaning that you will not need to worry about unmatched bets when laying. 4. Odds Boosts & VIP Look out for the boosts and make a note to check the Heads&Heads forums facebook group hourly for any updates on potential boosts. These will come thick and fast, but if you are quick, you can create some pretty incredible profit margins. Additionally, make sure you check your email over the 4 days. There will be plenty of bookmakers handing out ‘tailored’ offers to their VIP members. VIP has a loose definition in the eyes of the bookmaker, so you’re likely to get a lot more of these than you think and they are often very lucrative. If you want Heads&Heads to check a VIP offer before you attempt it, just post on the forum or message us on Live Chat. 5. Enjoy It Sounds cliché but don’t let it stress you out. Making money is great but taking the week off work and then running yourself into the ground all week isn't worth it. Matched betting is a side earner – something to enjoy and be done in your spare time to earn you some extra cash. It should not feel like a job. 6. A Small Exchange Balance Is No Excuse! Is it worth taking part with a really small bank like £500'ish? Even if you just did the offers that guaranteed a profit, you’d still make around £250 and this would not require a massive exchange balance. So yes, it is absolutely still worth it. What If I Am Gubbed by Most Bookmakers? This is a very common question and not an unreasonable one either. After all it is incredibly frustrating to have your account with a bookie gubbed. This is even worse when a huge event like Cheltenham is coming up. Honestly, it will restrict your ability to make money, but it is still possible to make a profit from Cheltenham. Extra place strategies are worth looking at (on Heads&Heads Training). This is made possible because Extra place betting doesn’t rely on you using free offers. So, if the bookie has only restricted your use of free offers then this is your best option. Furthermore, if you are restricted from getting reload offers by a bookmaker, you should still be able to take advantage of odds boosts. So, keep an eye out for these on the Heads&Heads Forum. Anything I Should Be Looking Out For? One issue to be aware of is that of the smaller bookmakers offering very generous odds. If an offer looks too good to be true then you should be careful. This was particularly true a couple of years ago, when a lot of smaller bookies offered really good odds and then refused to pay out people’s winnings. This problem is unlikely to occur again (happened in 2017), with bookmakers under the spotlight by legislators like never before. In addition, if you have an account with the bookmaker prior to Cheltenham starting, then you’ll be slightly more trusted by the bookie and thus they will honour your pay-out. Should You Book Time Off Work? Are you planning to take time off work during Cheltenham? This could be a great idea. As well as watching the races on TV, you can stay up to date with all of the offers during the day. However, we want to stress that taking time off work is by no means 'required' to make money during this week. That said, speed will be key for so many of the opportunities during the festival. You may only have a small amount of time to place your bet or lose the opportunity. Being at home will, of course, make this a lot easier. However, not everyone can take all 4 days off. So which days should you prioritise? Simple answer really. The first day – Tuesday (10th March). The reason for this is that the first day sees more offers available than any other single day. The bookies tend to start off strong and tail off towards the end. Cheltenham Schedule Day 1 (Tuesday 10th March 2020) 13:30 -The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 14:10 - The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase 14:50 -The Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase 15:30 - The Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 16:10 - The Mares’ Hurdle 16:50 - The Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase 17:30 - The National Hunt Challenge Cup Day 2 (Wednesday 11th March 2020) 13:30 - The Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle 14:10 - The RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase 14:50 - The Coral Cup 15:30 - The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase 16:10 - The Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 16:50 - The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 17:30 - The Weatherbys Champion Bumper Day 3 (Thursday 12th March 2020) 13:30 - The Marsh Novices’ Chase 14:10 - The Pertemps Network Final 14:50 - The Ryanair Chase 15:30 - The Stayers’ Hurdle 16:10 - The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate 16:50 - Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle 17:30 - The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Day 4 (Friday 13th March 2020) 13:30 - The JCB Triumph Hurdle 14:10 - The Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle 14:50 - The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 15:30 - The Cheltenham Gold Cup 16:10 - The St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup 16:50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase 17:30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Our Predictions Now, predictions may seem a bit useless as we are matched betting. However, knowing who the experts favour to win can help you pick a horse. So, for example, if an offer was triggered if your horse lost, you'd want to be sure you were avoiding those favoured to do well. So, use the below to help inform some of your decisions when completing Cheltenham reload offers. Epatante Epatante has caught the eye of punters during the early betting for the Champion Hurdle and, at the time of writing, rates as one of the strongest race favourites of the week. We likely have not seen the best of this horse. Benie Des Dieux Benie Des Dieux is quoted for a few Cheltenham races this spring but traders at major bookmakers are confident she will run in the Mares Hurdle. If she does, bookies expect her to win the race with a bit to spare. Envoi Allen Envoi Allen is priced as the standout horse in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle and traders believe he will take all the beating. A loss here will rate as one of the biggest upsets of the week. He won each of his first seven starts. Defi Du Seuil Defi Du Seuil can be found quoted in the Champion Chase antepost betting and the early money has been promising. He has won 13 of his first 18 and those stats aren’t to be taken lightly, certainly not by backers. Tiger Roll Tiger Roll is a fans favourite but have we already seen the best of Tiger Roll? As it stands Tiger Roll is the antepost favourite to win the Cross Country Chase and is a short price at that. Every Cheltenham offer will be posted on the Reload section (on Heads&Heads). It is also worth keeping up to date with the Cheltenham Forum thread (on Heads&Heads) – here the best offers of the day will be discussed. If you are interested in giving matched betting a go or Heads&Heads a go I’ve posted a discount code below. As I mentioned at the start of the guide, you can either use it or not. The main thing for me will be people find one or two useful bits of info in this guide. Discount: £2 for 60 days of Premium membership to Heads&Heads. Discount code: BUILDUP Click the link to have the code automatically applied: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=BUILDUP Timetable template for Cheltenham: https://headsandheads.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/Cheltenham+Timetable+-+template.xlsx The most important thing is to get involved! Best of luck and happy profit hunting!
Revising World Rugby Player of the Year: Part 2 - 2010-2019
World Rugby Player of the Year is the most prestigious individual accolade in the sport but suffice to say it has a history of questionable decisions (to say the least) in regard to previous winners and nominations. Being the rugby geek I am I have taken the liberty of offering a revised and far more accurate reflection of who should have won and been nominated each year since the awards inception. I'm unsure why they do many things they do but World Rugby change the number of nominees from four to seven dependent on the year so to maintain consistency I have decided to keep each year to five nominees. If you missed Part 1 please see link below: https://www.reddit.com/rugbyunion/comments/drb8a8/revising_world_rugby_player_of_the_year_part_1/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x Let me know if you Agree or Disagree. 2010 World Rugby Player of the Year Winner: Richie McCaw Nominees: Kurtley Beale Imanol Harinordoquy Victor Matfield Mils Muliaina David Pocock 2010 World Rugby Player of the Year (Revised) Winner: Richie McCaw Nominees: Kurtley Beale Victor Matfield David Pocock Kieran Read Verdict: Despite Kieran Read having a breakout season and claiming New Zealand Player of the Year, Richie McCaw was the deserved winner of the award after a fantastic return to form for both himself and the All Blacks. David Pocock had his first world-class season to announce himself as one of the premier 7s in world rugby, while Kurtley Beale had by far the best season of his career to date, scoring seven tries and proving a handful for every defence he came up against as well as nailing a penalty with the last kick of the match to lift Australia over the Springboks for their first win at altitude in 47 years. Victor Matfield was a shining light in a dour season for the Springboks and earns his nomination ahead of Harinordoquy and Muliaina. 2011 World Rugby Player of the Year Winner: Thierry Dusautoir Nominees: Will Genia Jerome Kaino Ma’a Nonu David Pocock Piri Weepu 2011 World Rugby Player of the Year (Revised) Winner: Jerome Kaino Nominees: Ma’a Nonu Sean O’Brien David Pocock Sam Warburton Verdict: The greatest injustice in this awards history is Jerome Kaino losing out to Thierry Dusautoir this year. Kaino was the undoubted player of the Rugby World Cup, playing every minute of the All Blacks’ campaign, scoring four tries, making immeasurable attacking contributions, and leaving would-be attackers broken with his shuddering defence. Dusautoir was awarded the title based on one outstanding test performance – albeit a World Cup final. Sean O’Brien and Sam Warburton were strong all season but went to a whole other level during the World Cup, to be the pick of the northern hemisphere players at the tournament. They knock Will Genia and Piri Weepu out who were good but there were worthier nominations. 2012 World Rugby Player of the Year Winner: Dan Carter Nominees: Owen Farrell Richie McCaw Frederic Michalak 2012 World Rugby Player of the Year (Revised) Winner: Richie McCaw Nominees: Dan Carter Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe Bryan Habana Kieran Read Verdict: Two of the oddest nominations in the awards history, Owen Farrell was not even a regular starter for England at the time and Frederic Michalak played only five games for an under-performing French side. Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe was immense for Argentina during their first year as part of the new Rugby Championship, while Habana had easily his best season since 2007 and in turn was crowned South African Player of the Year. Read continued to prove himself as the premier No. 8 in world rugby, while Dan Carter had a year worthy of nomination, highlighted by a masterclass against Scotland and kicking the winning drop goal against Ireland, but McCaw was the best player in international rugby this season. 2013 World Rugby Player of the Year Winner: Kieran Read Nominees: Eben Etzebeth Leigh Halfpenny Sergio Parisse Ben Smith 2013 World Rugby Player of the Year (Revised) Winner: Kieran Read Nominees: Eben Etzebeth Leigh Halfpenny Michael Hooper Ben Smith Verdict: Despite Leigh Halfpenny’s fantastic season, highlighted by being named both player of the tournament and player of the series during the Welsh Grand Slam of the Six Nations and Lions Tour victory respectively, this was a clearcut decision for Read, who produced one of the most dominant seasons by a player in recent memory. Ben Smith had his breakout season in international rugby, scoring 11 tries and being consistently sound in all facets of the game. Eben Etzebeth announced himself to the world with a string of intimidating performances while John Eales Medallist as Australian Player of the Year - Michael Hooper was a worthier nomination than Sergio Parisse. 2014 World Rugby Player of the Year Winner: Brodie Retallick Nominees: Wille le Roux Julian Savea Jonathan Sexton Duane Vermuelen 2014 World Rugby Player of the Year (Revised) Winner: Brodie Retallick Nominees: Michael Hooper Richie McCaw Jonathan Sexton Duane Vermuelen Verdict: Issue with selections this year are that of Wille le Roux as although he was an attacking marvel for the Springboks during the June Test series he was inconsistent after that and while Savea had his best year in an All Blacks jersey Hooper and McCaw were worthier nominations. 2015 World Rugby Player of the Year Winner: Dan Carter Nominees: Michael Hooper Greg Laidlaw David Pocock Julian Savea Alun Wyn Jones 2015 World Rugby Player of the Year (Revised) Winner: David Pocock Nominees: Dan Carter Schalk Burger Richie McCaw Ma’a Nonu Verdict: This award could have easily gone one of three ways with Carter, Nonu and Pocock having terrific seasons - but Pocock takes it by the narrowest of margins. Carter was arguably the best player on the field in his three biggest games of the year (quarter, semi and final), not to mention Bledisloe 2. Nonu had the best season of his career and scooped New Zealand Player of the Year. Pocock had a superb season, not even coming close to playing a bad game, with games for the ages against England and Argentina. Schalk Burger led the World Cup in carries and carries over the gainline, and made the fourth-most tackles in the entire tournament while Richie McCaw played in the fashion he has become renowned for until the very end. 2016 World Rugby Player of the Year Winner: Beauden Barrett Nominees: Dane Coles Owen Farrell Maro Itoje Jamie Heaslip Billy Vunipola 2016 World Rugby Player of the Year (Revised) Winner: Beauden Barrett Nominees: Dane Coles Owen Farrell Brodie Retallick Billy Vunipola Verdict: Retallick comes in for Itoje and Heaslip respectively, Itoje while a worthy winner of the Breakthrough Player of the Year but only played 7 tests throughout the year and was not playing at the level of Retallick who continued to prove himself as the premier lock in world rugby. Heaslip also had a very good year but didn’t do enough to command a position as a Top 5 player. 2017 World Rugby Player of the Year Winner: Beauden Barrett Nominees: Owen Farrell Israel Folau Rieko Ioane Maro Itoje 2017 World Rugby Player of the Year (Revised) Winner: Beauden Barrett Nominees: Jonathan Davies Owen Farrell Conor Murray Brodie Retallick Verdict: Davies was the British Lions Player of the Series during their tour of New Zealand and had a career best season as did Murray who asserted himself as the best scrumhalf in international rugby, Retallick continued his form of the past few years and was the pick of the All Blacks players during the Lions series. Folau had perhaps his best year as a Wallaby, crossing for 12 tries in 10 tests on his way to collecting the John Eales Medal as Australian Player of the Year while Ioane burst onto the international scene with 10 tries in 11 tests and was a worthy recipient of Breakthrough Player of the Year. Itoje continued his imperious form from the year prior to further establish himself as one of the best players in the world but these players overall contributions were not quite as prominent as the others. 2018 World Rugby Player of the Year Winner: Jonathan Sexton Nominees: Beauden Barrett Faf de Klerk Rieko Ioane Malcolm Marx 2018 World Rugby Player of the Year (Revised) Winner: Jonathan Sexton Nominees: Beauden Barrett Pieter-Steph du Toit Tadgh Furlong Malcolm Marx Verdict: PSDT won South African Player of the Year and was a more suitable nominee than de Klerk who while spectacular at times, had his cold moments also. Ioane continued to display that he was the best wing in world rugby with 11 tries in as many tests but Furlong redefined the capabilities of a modern day prop and was second to only Sexton as Ireland’s best player in one of/if not the countries greatest season and in turn should have become the first prop to earn a player of the year nomination 2019 World Rugby Player of the Year Winner: Pieter-Steph du Toit Nominees: Tom Curry Cheslin Kolbe Ardie Savea Joe Taufete’e Alun Wyn Jones 2019 World Rugby Player of the Year (Revised) Winner: Alun Wyn Jones Nominees: Beauden Barrett Tom Curry Pieter-Steph du Toit Ardie Savea Verdict: Just as I thought World Rugby was getting better with picking the right players along came the Taufete’e nomination…..but I digress, this may be unpopular opinion but I believe AWJ deserved it over PSDT this year. Player of the Six Nations as well as one of the players of the tournament at the world cup, topping the tackle count and inspiring Wales as a leader. While Kolbe was immense in every game he played, he only played 7 tests and I feel Beauden Barrett was more deserving of a nomination as up until the semi-final against England he was the bookies favourite for Player of the Tournament. Most Wins and Nominations (Revised) 4 Wins: Richie McCaw 2 Wins: Beauden Barrett, Jonny Wilkinson. 11 Nominations: Richie McCaw 5 Nominations: Dan Carter 4 Nominations: Beauden Barrett, Jonny Wilkinson 3 Nominations: Fourie du Preez, Bryan Habana, Victor Matfield, Brian O'Driscoll, David Pocock, Kieran Read, Brodie Retallick.
Welcome back to a resuscitated /baseball recurring series, (far off) Anniversaries in Baseball. The premise is simple: time, like baseball, is a flowing stream, that changes much less than we like to think it does. This series is about reflecting and remembering upon baseball events, or jerks, and real-world intrusions that made up a certain year exactly a few decades away. I attempt to convey this by merging primary and secondary sources through a variety of mediums to paint a portrait of the season in review. For the next few weeks, until the end of 2019, we will be drawing our thoughts back to ’19, ’29, ’39, ’49, ’59 to better understand our shared past and our sublimely important present- I ask you to join me on a quest through time to preserve a precious perspective and I hope you enjoy the series. Please include any feedback or thoughts in the comments section. This particular issue is going to factor in a bit more "World History" than the others, simply because of the disastrous tone the year 1919 took was reflected on in the baseball season. World Leaders: (There really wasn’t any population estimates because the war had ended two months prior, so here’s where the lines were drawn) Winners: *England *:Prime Minister David L. George United States of America: Woodrow Wilson France: President of the Council of Ministers Georges Clemenceau Italy: Prime Minister Francesco S. Nitti Canada: Prime Minister Robert Borden Cuba: Governor Mario G. Menocal Losers: Russia: Supreme Ruler Alexander V. Kolchak Weimar Republic: SDS Leader and President Friedrich Ebert Ottoman Empire: Mehmed VI Others: China: President Xu Scichang, Beiyang government Japan: Emperor Yoshihito Mexico: President Venustiano C. Garza Persia: Shah Qajar January- March: We have another New Year’s Day baby, when Sol and Marie Sallinger first met their infant, Jerome David on Manhattan Island. Later that week, former President Theodore Roosevelt died on the 6th. Future HoF’er James Henry “Orator Jim” O’ Rourke died two days later on the 8th in Bridgeport, CT of pneumonia contracted while walking home from a consultation appointment one week earlier. He played baseball for 23 years and is credited with the first NL hit while holding a law degree from Yale.. He started playing semi-pro ball only three years after the Civil War and by 1877 he was hitting .362 in the NL. On the 16th of that same month, The U.S. congress ratified prohibition which would take effect one year from that day. More importantly to the geo-political landscape of the world, on the 18th the Paris Peace Conference opened, tasked with sorting out the horrific formalities of The Great War, having been recently decided with the United States’ last-minute entrance. The date was symbolic, according to dispatch from the Guardian:
The great conference was formally opened at the Quai d’Orsay, yesterday on the 48th anniversary of that scene, so calamitous to Europe, when the German Empire was proclaimed at Versailles on the eve of the capitulation of Paris. If anyone had chanced to be present at both ceremonies, he would have been struck by a sense of contrast. The meeting in the Galerie des Glaces gave birth to a new order which has been a fatal burden to Europe. The meeting at the Quai d’Orsay is to give birth to a new order to which all mankind is looking for freedom and peace.
On the 20th, the group of representatives from more than two dozen countries began discussing punishments for the “warmongering” Kaiser, without Germany. The Conference was buzzing along through its second week on Jan. 31, when in Cairo, GA, sharecroppers Mallie and Jerry Robinson were honored with the birth of their fifth child, who they named after the recently deceased president: Jack Roosevelt Robinson. Six days later, on February 5th, four of the largest movie-picture stars in America: Douglas Fairbanks, Charlie Chaplin, D.W. Griffin and Mary Pickford created and agreed to the United Artists Corporation, in an attempt to control their artwork and profits more directly. There was no block booking for the new movie studio, and the actors and directors themselves controlled much of the common stock. That same day, in the National League offices, the Cincinnati Reds were making a case of corruption against a former player, Hal Chase. He was accused all throughout baseball for throwing games to his gambler friends while leading the league in hitting with .339 in his first year in Cincinnati, 1916. What triggered this hearing? Several Reds reported to their manager, Christy Mathewson, that they had seen or overheard Chase discuss his bets on the team. The NL president decided the suit when Mathewson was still serving in France:
"The testimony shows that Chase acted in a careless manner, both on the field and among the players, and that the club was justified in bringing the charges, in view of the many rumors which arose from the loose talk of the first baseman. In substance, the player was charged with making wagers against his club in games in which he participated. In justice to Chase, I feel bound to state that both the evidence and the records of the games to which reference was made, fully refute this accusation."
On Feb. 19th, the Reds traded him to the Giants and he signed his contract the day his old manager Christy Mathewson was named their assistant manager. On Feb. 25th, the state of Oregon created the first gas tax in U.S. history of a penny. On that same day in Haleburg Alabama, 81 miles west of Cairo, Monford Merrill “Monte” Irvin awoke to his first day of life. Only a few hours later on the 26th, President Wilson signed Senate Bill 390 which designated the Grand Canyon as a national park. Almost a month later, on March 23rd, Benito Mussolini founded the Italian fascist movement as a direct response to post-WWI turmoil. At this point in the year, however, spring was busting open and baseball was beginning to unveil itself again. The only problem was- baseball had taken such a hit in 1918: the “work or fight” movement derailed the season and it prematurely concluded with an almost false-World Series. This year, the season would be cut to 140 games and every owner lost money in the process. Still, many teams traveled to the south per usual for spring training. The Yankees and Tigers to Macon, GA, the Indians to New Orleans, the Red Sox to Tampa. The Phillies to Charlotte, the Robins to Jacksonville, the Pirates to Birmingham, the Braves to Columbus, GA and the Giants to Gainesville. While the Cardinals and A’s stayed put in the home parks, most of the rest of the teams settled in Texas, which was once the hot spot for Spring Training but was now losing its popularity. Still, the Reds showed up to Waxahachie, the O’s to San Antonio and the White Sox to the fabled health center, Mineral Wells. Their offseason was turbulent:
No one was quite sure how Gleason’s team would fare in the pennant race. The White Sox’ lack of pitching depth behind Eddie Cicotte and Lefty Williams was cited as a major concern by Chicago Tribunereporter Irving Sanborn, who predicted on April 20, “Unless he has a lot of luck developing new pitchers … (Gleason) is going to have a hard time keeping his team in the first division of the American League.” Veteran Red Faber, who had won three games in the 1917 World Series, was hampered by arm and ankle injuries, and he had come down with the flu virus and could not shake it. A global influenza epidemic had killed more than 600,000 Americans in the winter of 1918-19 alone. Faber’s condition was noticeably weak during spring training and it took him all year to fully recover.
How could we get into this much of 1919 without commenting on the global pandemic gripping the world: the Spanish flu virus? The world’s first wide war had given humanity an unwanted gift: bird flu, the H1N1 virus. Why call it the Spanish flu virus? Because the pandemic arose during the war, any country fighting censored reports of the disease, leaving neutral countries like Spain to wonder what was going on. No one knows where it started, but some estimates say 3-5% of the world’s population died. 10-20% of humanity was infected, including 28% of the American population. The worst year was 1918, but with the political instability the Great War had caused, the chaos of human civilization was seeping into baseball. As we would see, the White Sox would be in the center of a troubled, shaky world. Before teams departed from Spring training, a man put in the ground work to his legend. Red Sox two-way player George H. Ruth was on the starting nine for the Boston club in an exhibition game in Tampa, where he hit an estimated 587 ft. home run. Ruth and dingers this year would be a common theme, but this homer resonated far after his career was over- and this was important because Ruth had just ended a hold out with the Boston front office. PLAY BALL!: Until the 19 of April, 1919, Sunday baseball in New York was illegal. Governor Al Smith signed a bill repealing the blue laws, which opened up a new wave of passion for the national pastime on Sundays, when workers have the day off and are able to attend games. The president of the NL, Mr. Heydler, said:
I feel sure that baseball will have one of the greatest revivals in the history of the sport during the coming season, and I expect to see 1919 prove to be one of our banner years. I make this prediction more as a lover of baseball than as a baseball official… I believe the public can look forward to one of the most interesting seasons it has ever known.
144 years to the day after the Lexington and Concord skirmishes that started the rebellion, the season got under way. The Robins completed a sweep of their twinbill against the Braves- the rest of the teams got underway on that Wednesday the 23rd. One week later, if you had awoke in America to inspect the standings, you would see the 6-1 White Sox at the top of the AL and the undefeated 6-0 Reds at the top of the NL. You would have seen another full slate of games for that day: the Robins and Phillies tied a wild 20 inning game, where both starters (HoF) Burleigh Grimes and Joe Oeschger went the distance. Oeschger yielded 24 hits and only got two punchouts. Both teams scored 3 runs in the 19th before home plate umpire (HoF) Bill Klem called the game. But over the past few days in America, anarchists sent sticks of dynamite to the residences of prominent anti-labor and conservative politicians, specifically designed to coincide with May Day. The governor of Mississippi, Theodore G. Bilbo, the Postmaster General Albert S. Burleson, the police commissioner and mayor of NYC, John D. Rockefeller, Chicago District Judge Kennesaw Mountain Landis and Attorney General A. Mitchell Palmer, among others. The country was horrified --) would the violence and revolts that were racking Germany seep into America? Fear spread like air throughout the country and the government quickly rounded up suspects. Only two days after May Day, a composer and his violinist wife welcomed their son, Peter Seeger, into the world in Manhattan. Three days later, on the 6th, the Yanks lineup featured leadoff hitter and 24-year old rookie George Halas in a game against the 3-7 A’s. Halas got 4 PA’s before being removed for a pinch hitter and got his first hit in the Yankee loss. Rambling through the days to the 11th, Halas was still in the leadoff spot for a matchup against the Senators. Walter Johnson and Jack Quinn each went 12 innings- and Halas collected 2 of Johnson’s 9 K’s that day. In fact, Johnson gave up a double in the first and put down the next 28 batters until surrendering a leadoff single in the 11th. The game ended locked at 0 because of a curfew, but at least they were able to play the game after the disappearance of the blue laws. Johnson’s masterpiece was not the most amazing pitching performance of the day. The Reds were sitting in second place when they took on the bottom-feeding Cardinals. The game went by uneventfully in the first inning just before player-manager Rogers Hornsby led off the second with a walk. He was thrown out trying to steal second, and Reds starter used that momentum to only give up two more walks the entire game, achieving a no hitter in the process. This was the first no hitter at Crosley Field and Eller used his shine ball to baffle the Cards, according to this thought provoking look back.. On May 20th, the 9-8 Red Sox ran out onto the field of Sportsman Park to play the Browns. In the second inning, the first three Sox hitters Harry Hooper, Jack Barry and Amos Strunk all reached base.. Their teammate, Babe Ruth, socked a ball over the fence for his first career grand slam, to put his club ahead 4-0, his second regular season dinger of 1919. JUNE: A month had passed, but the red scare was just beginning with more dynamite sticks flying into unsuspecting residences. The next wave of anarchist strikes occurred on the 2 with larger bombs arriving at judges and mayors’ doorsteps, as well as a second bomb directed at AG Palmer, each carrying this message:
War, Class war, and you were the first to wage it under the cover of the powerful institutions you call order, in the darkness of your laws. There will have to be bloodshed; we will not dodge; there will have to be murder: we will kill, because it is necessary; there will have to be destruction; we will destroy to rid the world of your tyrannical institutions.
Palmer was not home when the pipe bomb went off. His neighbors across the street, Franklin and Elenore Roosevelt, walked past his door moments before the explosion and were only feet away from serious injury. Roosevelt was the assistant secretary to the Navy, tasked by Palmer to root out “homosexual behaviors” in the navy. FDR did this by arresting and trying veterans for sodomy. Roosevelt began expanding the illegal investigation harshly and was rebuked by Palmer, who shut down the investigation.. The calls of violent mayhem were not just coming from inside the house. Mexican revolution leader Francisco “Pancho” Villa organized an attack on nationalist forces in Ciudad Juarez, which his godson carried out at his wishes on the evening of the 14th. As the bullets hit buildings in nearby El Paso, the United States army got nervous and invaded Juarez to calm down tensions. Two American citizens were killed and over 90 Mexican soldiers and civilians died. One day after the tensions subsided, on the 17th, the New York Giants (30-14) prepared to play the Chicago Cubs (25-21) at Weeghman Field. Cubs ace Pete Alexander notched a win after giving up two runs to the Giants in the second. Hal Chase was playing at first and got a hit but was removed for a pinch hitter in the late innings. This would be the major league debut of Frankie Frisch. Strikes, bombs and violence was not just the new normal in Mexico and America at this drawn out summer of 1919. Back in mid-May, the entire population of Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, went on strike. The population wanted more worker protections and a better life. The strike surged until the leaders of it found themselves behind bars on the same day Frisch made his debut. On the 21st, Canadian soldiers began a silent parade on main street and were met by Mounties with pistols, who unloaded their ammunition into the crowd, wounding 30. These battles between common folk and police, revolutionary leaders and military soldiers were occurring all over the world as the general population waited for the countries to settle their differences in Paris. All throughout this year, this season, the grand leaders sat in rooms hashing out the new world order and as you can imagine, this was quite an exclusively elusive bunch. A former baker from a Boston hotel, born in French Indochina and living in London, co-wrote a letter to the assembly asking them to attend on behalf of their home nation. He was Vietnamese and argued for the creation of a country under the yoke of French occupation, one of several foreign entities that had invaded and tried to control their countryside. In fact, the man who called himself Nguyen Ai Quac showed up at the conference and demanded to speak to President Wilson!. This did not happen and Nguyen the Patriot would find different political idols in France- communists. On the 28th, the leaders emerged from their comfy halls of power to alert their subjects that they had agreed on terms and at the suggestion of Woodrow Wilson, established the “League of Nations”. Wilson embarked on a vigorous campaign to convince the isolationist country to join the world powers. JULY: On the 28th of the former month, Brooklyn’s Ed Konetchy went 3-3 in his plate appearances. In fact, he got a hit every single plate appearance until the 1st, when hit his 10th straight baseball in 10 tries at the box, setting the major league record for consecutive hits. Four days later, on the fifth, was Halas’s last PA in baseball. A hip injury forced his retirement but he continued playing semi-pro baseball and football back home in Ohio. He got a day job at a starch manufacturer, A.E. Staley. He served in sales and ran the company football team, the Decatur Staleys and by 1922 coach George Halas was guiding the Chicago Bears through the infant seasons of the NFL. One day after Halas left the stage, Chicago Cubs president/manager Fred Mitchell gave up his job of controlling the business side of his roster to his VP, William Veeck Sr., a former sportswriter. Veeck would transform the team with shrewd moves, partnered with the infant radio industry and he brought his son, William Veeck Jr., along with him. The Chicago they lived and worked in was not cheerful or peaceful. As soldiers burst back into domestic life, black soldiers began questioning the Jim Crow system that terrorized them at home. Back in May, NAACP co-founder W.E.B. DuBois published an essay, “Returning Soldiers”--) and scolded the status quo which supported lynching and encouraged ignorance. He ended with a call to arms:
This is the fatherland for which we fought! But it is our fatherland. It was right for us to fight. The faults of our country are our faults. Under similar circumstances, we would fight again. But by God of Heaven, we are cowards and jackasses if now that the war is over, we do not marshal every ounce of our brain and brawn to fight a sterner, longer, more unbending battle against the forces of hell in our own land. We return We return from fighting We return fighting Make way for Democracy! We saved it in France, and by the Great Jehovah, we will save it in the United States of America, or know the reason why.
By 1919, the rest of the country was tightly segregated but Chicago, mostly, was not. Beaches along Lake Michigan were, and that’s where we go on the 27th. The White Sox were 6 games up in first place, the Cubs had Pete Alexander toeing the bump and a unknown white attacker on a beach in Chicago stoned a black swimmer to death. America’s common man poet, Carl Sandburg, wrote an essay about the race riots that ensued and ripped the city apart. A major societal trend was occurring- African Americans were leaving the Black Belt in the South, which they had clung to since Emancipation, for better job opportunities in the industrial north. Sandburg reported on what we call now the “Great Migration”, and predicted the chaos earlier in the year. For a week, gangs of Irish citizens and rabble rousing racists donned blackface and lit up immigrant neighborhoods to stoke tension among the races. The mayor and the governor haggled over the specifics of sending the national guard as 23 African American citizens were hunted down and murdered. Gangs, like the Hamburg Athletic Club continued escalating the violence because they occupied south side neighborhoods stuck in the middle. History will never know for sure if Hamburg Athletic Club gangster, 17-year-old future mayor Richard Daley, took part in busting skulls of protesting African Americans. AUGUST: By the 4th, Chicago declared the riots had subsided. Now, the battle that occupied their time was in the National League Standings, where the Reds and Giants swung back and forth through the next few weeks. Twenty days later on the 24th, the 28-79 Athletics sent their abysmal hitters up to face the Cleveland Indians at League Park, against Ray Caldwell. The Indians scored twice in the fourth, around the time the foreboding sky started to emit rain and Caldwell waltzed out in the 5th and surrendered his only run. With two outs in the ninth, Caldwell needed one more out to end the game and bared down- when he was struck by lightning and knocked unconscious. A sportswriter described the scene:
“There was a blinding flash that seemed to set the diamond on fire and Caldwell was knocked flat from the shock of it.”
Caldwell came to, stood back up, and retired the last A’s hitter for the victory. This kept the Indians 8 games back of the White Sox, who were the first team to score over 500 runs. The next day, the 25th, in Clio, Alabama, George Corley Wallace Jr. entered the great stage of life. SEPTEMBER- Entering the 8th of this month, the defending pennant winning-Red Sox were squarely out of the race. Their bright young pitcher, Babe Ruth, was in his first year of a three-year pact and was slowly transitioning into an electrifying power hitter when he wasn’t pitching. He set the AL record in homers in July and on this day he set the major league record with his 26th homer, in the first game of a doubleheader against the Yankees in the Polo Grounds. Harry Hooper also hit his third home run. The 66-53 Yanks wouldn’t get much better luck later in the week, on Wednesday the tenth the red-hot Cleveland club came to town. Ray Caldwell, fresh after his run in with a bolt of electricity in the sky, got two quick supporting runs from his team in the top half of the first. He knocked in his second double of the season later in the game and was a walk away from a perfect game. Caldwell’s first no hitter occurred less than a month after being struck by lightning. Earlier back in the year, Giants manager John McGraw traveled to the Ohio farm of Harry F. “Slim” Sallee and offered him a contract. Sallee was focused on retirement but noted he would only play for a team close by, in this case, Cincinnati. McGraw walked away and watched as Sallee achieved great things as a control master lefty for the Reds. He even got his own day at the ballpark, for his start on the 21st. He threw 65 pitches in total and finished his complete game shutdown of the Giants in 55 minutes. Six days later on the 27th, the last Saturday of the regular season, Babe Ruth became the first AL hitter to homer in every park. The October matchup was already decided: White Sox vs. Reds. POSTSEASON- The White Sox were the best team in baseball, but their success originated from their clique-driven clubhouse. Team captain and superstar Eddie Collins, his future Cooperstown buddy Ray Schalk and others were well-paid and good at their jobs. The second half of the clubhouse- Eddie Cicotte, Happy Felsch and 1B Buck Weaver were culturally on a different planet. Weaver was underpaid, and in his search for money contacted a Boston bookie to place a bet against his own team. “According to the grand-jury testimony of Eddie Cicotte, his faction first began to discuss the feasibility of throwing the upcoming World Series during a train trip late in the regular season”. There was still the persistent rumor that the Cubs threw the previous World Series to Ruth’s Sox, and Hal Chase had escaped hot water over his close ties to gamblers. Lefty Williams and Joe Jackson joined the fix during the off days before the Series. Every player demanded their 10k share but only Cicotte got his before the series, which began on the first. At this point, according to “Eight Myths Out” from SABR,, the Chicago owner Charles Comiskey knew about the fix, as did famously connected gambler Arnold Rothstein and Hal Chase. Cicotte hit the first batter in the back as a signal that the fix was on. Here’s the footage. The Reds scored a run in that inning but Chicago answered it. In the fourth, Cicotte made a throwing error and the Reds ended the inning with five runs, eventually winning 9-1. The Reds won again the next day on Sallee’s masterful performance, to go up 2-0 and rolled into the south side of Chicago, still smoldering from the race riots earlier. Not all the cheating players had received their share and the White Sox had a rookie pitcher who was not in on the fix for game 3, so the club got their first series win. Eddie Cicotte was scheduled to start the next day, and after Jackson and Cicotte made obvious errors, the Reds went up 3-1. For what its worth, Cicotte would later mention he tried to win that game. All the White Sox went cold in October, going 26 innings without plating a run during the series. After a rain delay gave the teams their first off day, the Reds lost the next game 5-0. Jackson finally got support from his teammates the next game which led to a 5-4 White Sox win. Cicotte pitched up to snuff in game seven to give White Sox fans hope. Lefty Williams started game eight and gave up a four spot in the first. The Reds won 10-5 and their first World Series. Some writers and fans had questioned the White Sox for their sloppy errors and their owner Comiskey led an investigation that confirmed the truth. He buried the news, ruled Gandil ineligible and hoped no one would find the skeleton in his closet. This scandal would rock baseball to its core for generations and was one of the most famous events from this year with the faulty myths. In that first week of October, however, throwing the World Series was not the only thing occurring behind closed doors. Woodrow Wilson crisscrossed the country to campaign for his League of Nations to see its ratification in the Senate. In April, he contracted H1N1 and his sickly picture of health and asthma loomed ominously. For days, Wilson [ignored his health and felt painful headaches](https://www.pbs.org/newshouhealth/woodrow-wilson-stroke). On the day of game two of the WS, he either got up from bed and collapsed or woke up to feel his left hand numb. It was a stroke- he was paralyzed on his left side. Partially blind in his right eye. Suffered a UTI infection three weeks later and another bout of influenza the next year. Just like the White Sox scandal, it would take months for the American public to get wind of just how serious it had been. Until then, his wife, Edith became the de-facto president, our first female executive. Her duties included, in her own words:
I studied every paper sent from the different Secretaries or Senators and tried to digest and present in tabloid form the things that, despite my vigilance, had to go to the President. I, myself, never made a single decision regarding the disposition of public affairs. The only decision that was mine was what was important and what was not, and the very important decision of when to present matters to my husband.
Would the chaos, the suffering, the pain of 1919 continue into the next decade? Was violence, corruption, disease and the lying be the new normal? Around this time, a young veteran in Germany, disillusioned with the ridiculous post-war society joined the German Workers Party. They convinced him to make his first public speech at the Hofbraukeller brewery in Munich on the 16th of October. According to Adolph Hitler, it was the Jews who were to blame for the 1919 post-war madness. Over one hundred brown shirts in the brewery latched on to Hitler’s ideas quickly and his public speaking scheduled increased as President Wilson attempted to regain his health after the stroke. November-December Historians would later call the summer of 1919 the “Red Scare”, where conservative forces in the government and its citizens lashed out against reformers, socialists, and African Americans with zeal as anarchists and foreign revolutions spread fear. AG Palmer had been a victim of the bombs earlier in the year. This August, he appointed 24-year-old J. Edgar Hoover to prosecute political threats from foreigners and leftists. Hoover forged a pact with local cops to conduct a raid on November 7th, as Wilson sat in bed. Many of the humans they arrested were later freed and Palmer drew condemnation for the raids that bear his name, if little of his actual handiwork. Jumping ahead to December 12, inching toward 1920, the major league owners met and decided to severely limit the use of the spitball, allowing two players on each roster to continue the practice. After the 1920 season, the number would go down to one, allowing several pitchers to be grandfathered in. Toward the end of the year world health officials celebrated the end of the Spanish Flu epidemic and as fans would learn in 1920, Red Sox owner Harry Frazee sent George H. “Babe” Ruth for a hundred thousand dollars and a 350-thousand-dollar loan for Frazee’s new Broadway play, tied to a mortgage on Fenway Park. STANDINGS
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